Articles

‘Frankentire Factor’ – Fantasy Insight Atlanta

Kasey Kahne

Another factor that crosses over from horse race handicapping to fantasy race handicapping is the equipment change. In the past I have talked at length about how you have to mentally adjust someone’s chances in a particular race if you see the driver in different equipment.

But one other factor that affects each driver in the race is tires. This week at Atlanta Motor Speedway Goodyear is introducing the tire dubbed as “Frankentire” and the fantasy handicapper has to wonder how this might change the dynamic of the race. This week the “Frankentire Factor” needs to be considered in addition to the other variables.

When it comes to tires we have one useful piece of data to consider. NASCAR and the tracks let us know which drivers went to tire testing. If we combine that info with the Power Ratings we can diagnose if one of the drivers that tested a new tire at a track might have an advantage.

The right side tire at AMS this week is unique because it uses a compound used at Kansas and Michigan on the inside three inches of the tire with the compound used at Atlanta in the past on the rest of the tire. We usually do not have test times to compare one driver to the next so it is more about familiarity with the tire than pure speed that helps us develop our educated guess on the “Frankentire Factor” this week.

They say familiarity breeds contempt in relationships but in tires familiarity can be the key to a trip to Victory Lane. Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Paul Menard, David Ragan, David Reutimann, Martin Truex Jr. and J.J. Yeley were the drivers testing at Atlanta on the new tire.

Kasey Kahne was the only driver involved in the tire test to choose the new tire that returned for the regular test at Atlanta. This gives Kahne a slight advantage on the “Frankentire” and when combined with the third best Power Rating that makes Kahne my choice this week.

Good luck with your fantasy racing picks this week and don’t forget to send in your pick for “Whiteboard Fantasy Racing” this week for Atlanta.      

Send in your pick to win this week’s Cup race to dennis@racetalkradio.com for a chance to win a copy of the National Speedway Directory from SpeedwaysOnline.com.

National Speedway Directory

Hot off the press the 2013 edition of the National Speedway Directory is now available. For over 3 decades the NSD has given race fans and teams information about every track in North America. Order your copy today at http://speedwaysonline.com

Weather Report

Variable cloudiness with a threat of thunderstorms; high temp in the mid to upper 80s; temps falling into the mid 70s during the race.

If you have a question about Fantasy Racing send it to dennis@racetalkradio.com and get it answered next week.

NASCAR by the Numbers

Using a proprietary race analysis technique we take the fans inside the numbers every week. DMIC’s rating system has been in use since 2002 and has proven to pick the contenders from the pretenders!

Consistency is King (Last Five Races)

Joey Logano

Driver

Last 5

J Logano

94

K Kahne

91

R Newman

89

JP Montoya

89

Ku Busch

88

C Bowyer

88

Ky Busch

88

J Gordon

87

M Kenseth

87

C Edwards

86

Horses for Courses (Track Rating)

Driver

Course

J Gordon

92

M Kenseth

91

Brian Vickers

90

JP Montoya

90

K Harvick

89

Ku Busch

89

D Hamlin

87

AJ Allmendinger

86

Ky Busch

86

B Keselowski

85           

Type Casting (Track Type Factor)

Driver

Type

J Johnson

92

J Logano

92

C Edwards

92

M Truex

92

D Hamlin

92

Ky Busch

91

M Kenseth

91

K Kahne

90

K Harvick

90

B Keselowski

89

Power Rating (240 Minimum to Qualify as Contender)

Driver

Power

M Kenseth

269

Ky Busch

265

K Kahne

264

K Harvick

264

J Logano

262

Ku Busch

261

J Johnson

260

B Keselowski

260

M Truex

260

Brian Vickers

259

C Edwards

259

G Biffle

258

JP Montoya

257

R Newman

257

J Gordon

256

D Hamlin

255

C Bowyer

254

P Menard

252

D Earnhardt Jr

251

AJ Allmendinger

248

M Ambrose

247

A Almirola

244

J McMurray

242

Austin Dillon

242

M Martin

242

J Burton

241

R Stenhouse Jr

236

C Mears

225

D Ragan

223

D Stremme

222

D Reutimann

221

D Gilliland

221

B Labonte

220

T Kvapil

219

D Patrick

219

D Blaney

218

Kyle Busch

DMIC’s Fantasy Picks presented by Speedwaysonline.com

Each week we will take you beyond the numbers to handicap the field from top to bottom to help your Fantasy Racing team succeed. You are also invited to join Lori Munro and I on “White Board Fantasy Racing” every Monday night on “Doin’ Donuts” at 8pm ET on RaceTalkRadio.com. Win fun prizes by picking just the race winners in our unique format. Send your picks to info@racetalkradio.com to enter.

Top Pick (Last Week Finished 11th)

Kasey Kahne- “Frankentire Factor” and strong Power Rating add up to a winning pick

(7 to 1 Odds) 

Best Long Shot (Odds of 20-1 or More) (Last Week Finished 4th)   

Joey Logano- Needs a win so team willing to take a strategy gamble

(20 to 1 Odds)

Top Dogs (Group A in Yahoo) (Last Week Finished 30th)

Jimmie Johnson- Should bounce back big from two sub par performances

(5 to 1 Odds)

Second Class (Group B in Yahoo) (Last Week 20th)         

Kyle Busch- Hottest driver in NASCAR right now

(7 to 1 Odds)

Middle Packer (Group C in Yahoo) (Last Week Finished 18th)         

Austin Dillon- Will offer a solid group pick to manage your Stenhouse usage

(100 to 1 Odds)

Crazy 8s for Atlanta

Each week Lori Munro and Dennis Michelsen battle in the most unique racing game around! We pick one driver each from each 8 driver group using the current points’ standings. Our picks can help you round out your fantasy racing lineup!

Dennis won 3-2 in week 24 and Lori leads the game 14-10 for the year

Group 1: Dennis picks Jimmie Johnson and Lori picks Matt Kenseth

Group 2: Lori picks Joey Logano and Dennis picks Brad Keselowski

Group 3: Dennis picks Paul Menard and Lori picks Denny Hamlin

Group 4: Lori picks Mark Martin and Dennis picks Danica Patrick

Group 5: Dennis picks Brian Vickers and Lori picks Austin Dillon

Do you have what it takes to handicap the races? Join Lori and Dennis every week and play in the Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Series! Send your pick for the Cup race to info@racetalkradio.com to enter. Weekly prize given away! 

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