As I understand it, the modified system awards a winner 43 points. He gets three more points for winning and another for leading a lap, which means a minimum of 47 laps.
If the winner leads the most laps that means another bonus point. The total is now 48, the most any driver can earn in a single race.
The most points the second-place finisher can get is 44 points, 42 for second, one for leading and one for leading the most laps.
Putting bonus points aside – NASCAR wanted to maintain the race winner reward – the system is pretty basic. There’s only a one-point difference between each position, from the base of 43 for first place to just one for last place.
The unique change NASCAR made for this season, in addition to rewarding consistency of performance, was to allow the top 10 after 26 races to qualify for the chase. Spots 11 and 12 would go to the drivers who have compiled the most victories and rank among the top 20.
OK, that’s enough. I’ve dwelled long enough on something you already know.
But what I find interesting about the new points system is that it has kept things fairly undecided as we enter the final six races before the Chase.
While there are a few drivers who seem safe when it comes to the Chase, there are others whose status is very much uncertain.
And Carl Edwards, the points leader, by no means has a lock on the top spot. He’s just seven points ahead of five-time champion Jimmie Johnson.
Among the top 10 every driver except one has a victory. Kevin Harvick, fourth in points and eight behind Edwards, has three victories, as does Kyle Busch, who is fifth in points, 13 in arrears.
Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon have two wins each – and are ranked sixth and seventh in points, respectively.
I would think all four drivers are pretty much guaranteed spots in the Chase.
I’d say the same for Edwards, Johnson, Kurt Busch (third in points), Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin, who each have a victory and are among the top 10.
OK, here’s where the situation becomes a bit tense for some drivers.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. ranks ninth in points largely because he’s been in a competitive swoon. He was once as high as third in the standings.
But he does not have a victory. Which means two things if he wants to make the Chase: He has to hang on to the top 10 over the next six races, or, at the very least, earn a victory, something he hasn’t done since 2008.
Tony Stewart faces a similar situation. He’s tied with Hamlin for 10th in points, but unlike Hamlin, he doesn’t have a victory.
So if the Chase started immediately, Hamlin is in and Stewart is out.
But it doesn’t start immediately so Stewart has a chance to secure his place. Most likely he would prefer to do it with a victory. He hasn’t had a winless season in a career that dates back to 1999.
Other notables, such as Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne and Greg Biffle, pretty much have to rely on winning to make the Chase.
Bowyer is 12th in points, Kahne 14th and Biffle 15th. They are 110 points or more behind the leader. Bowyer is 28 points out of 10th place. He can certainly make up the difference but the odds are quickly stacking against him.
It’s the same for Kahne and Biffle, who are each 47 points out of the hunt.
For these three guys, a victory would be the tonic. The last time Bowyer went winless happened in 2009. He won two races last year.
Kahne has had two consecutive winless seasons. Between 2003-10, Biffle had only one year without a victory, 2009.
I don’t think there’s much doubt any of them can win this year. The question is can they do it in time to help them make the Chase?
They are not alone. It’s going to take a win for several others who rank 11-20th in points to make NASCAR’s “playoff.”
They include A.J. Allmendinger, Juan Pablo Montoya, Joey Logano, Paul Menard and Mark Martin.
Fact is there’s only one driver out of the top 10 who is assured a position in the Chase – for the time being, anyway.
That’s David Ragan, who won at Daytona on July 2 to earn the first victory of his career. He’s presently 13th in points.
He’s 46 points out of 10th place. That’s not insurmountable, just as it is for Bowyer, Kahne and Biffle, and I’m sure that, like the others, gaining positions is what he’d like to do.
But he’s the only one with the luxury of a victory.
As it stands right now, the only other driver who has a shot at the Chase is Brad Keselowski. He has a victory but, in 23rd place, ranks out of the top 20.
He’s going to have to scrap his way in. He’s 25 points behind 20th-place Martin, again certainly not an insurmountable margin. He has six races to do it.
The next half-dozen races are worthy of our attention. For some drivers it’s obviously going to take victory to make all the difference.
Can they win? Certainly. The 2011 season has already produced 13 different winners, including three who won for the first time.
Since NASCAR’s modern era began in 1972, the all-time record for most winners in a single season is 19 and the record for most first-time winners was five twice, in 2001 and 2002.
We’re on a pace to have 25 winners this year, including six who won for this first time in their careers.
I don’t know if that will happen, but the point is this season’s variety of winners would indicate that anything could happen over the next six events – and thus alter the starting field for the Chase.