Lets Play Dice – Monaco Grand Prix Preview

May 22, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Nicole Sherzinger of the Pussycat Dolls will be pulling for her boyfriend, Lewis Hamilton.

This weekend the Formula One circus pulls into the second smallest and most densely populated country on the planet. Where the per capita annual income is over $153,000, and a square yard of land costs $60,000. Welcome to the micro State led by a monarch who’s family became so successful on the gambling tables of the Monte Carlo Casino that no income tax has had to be collected from residents since 1869!

The Monaco Grand Prix will be the sixth round of the world drivers and constructors championships; for the winner there is the prestige of winning the signature race of motor sports highest echelon and an opportunity to shake hands with royalty. Everyone else will be struggling in a race that three time world champion Nelson Piquet, who never won the Monaco Grand Prix, described as “like trying to ride a bicycle around your living room”.

Of the three championship contenders two-time Monaco winner and World Champion Fernando Alonso must fancy his chances after dominating with a gamblers strategy last time out in Spain. He lies a not too distant third in points and a second win on the trot, third of the season, would boost his championship aspirations.

Alonso can take the win if Ferrari gets the qualifying right.

Ferrari must be doing something right for a clearly rattled Dietrich Mateshitz of Red Bull to publicly criticise them for using an aggressive pit strategy in Spain. Maranello earlier this week dismissed the put down with all the contempt it deserves.

Red Bull, no strangers to the effects of a public whipping in the press from their opponents, are leading this years constructors championship. Tension exhibited earlier in the season between their drivers can only be heightened this week as Mark Webber has won two of the last three Monaco Grand Prix to teammate Sebastian Vettel’s one.

Mark would be thrilled to put one over his team mate, to do so he must be aiming to start from pole as he did on both of the occasions on which he won. Mark is the only non-champion to have won this race since 2004.

However all things being equal look for championship leader Vettel to put in a strong performance on Sunday, anything less than a podium might be interpreted as the start of an unwelcome mid season slump. A win from pole, as he did in 2011, would consolidate Sebastian’s claim to the championship and make things difficult for his two emergent challengers Alonso and Kimi ‘Iceman’ Räikkönen who won the Monaco Grand Prix in 2005.

Never rule Raikonnen out with this Lotus.

Kimi won the opening race of the season and since has scored three consecutive second places, in the last three races, the kind of consistency that neither Vettel or Alonso have come close to achieving this year. If the race at Monaco is anything but a procession expect to see Kimi make the most of others mistakes, a win is possible but my gut feeling is that third place is more likely.

Ferrari and Lotus de facto number two drivers Felipe Massa and Romain Grosjean respectively are outside contenders for podium finishes, but with the current state of reliability in the field this is most unlikely.

The spanner in the works of all predictions at Monaco this year is the Mercedes Benz team who have won the last three consecutive pole positions this season and then completely fallen off the cliff on race day to record a single podium finish from a front row start.  If Lewis Hamilton or Nico Rosberg start from pole, which either is capable of, with the other locking out the front row the race will be one of the most entertaining since 2008 when Lewis Hamilton managed to win from third on the grid.

Baring some miracle development back at the Mercedes Benz factory in Brackley over the last ten days to over come the Mercedes propensity for eating it’s tyres I do not anticipate Hamilton or Rosberg being on Sunday’s podium, but do not gamble on it.

Outside the top four teams Paul di Resta or Adrian Sutil scoring a maiden win at the principality for Force India is unlikely, a finish on the podium would most likely be the result of an unforeseeable chain o misfortune for the top four teams.

Can Vettel manage his tyres on the brutal streets of Monaco?

The so far disappointing McLaren team, which convincingly won the last two races of 2012, have in Jenson Button a world champion and former Monaco winner, for him a top six finish would be a massive step forward, for Perez any top ten finish would be a result and a finish ahead of Button possible.

Only a gambler with nerves of steel would put money on Williams Pastor Maldonado winning the second race of his career. In the event of many misfortunes further up the field a points finish for Pastor or team mate Valtteri Bottas is the best that, last years Spanish GP winners, can hope for.

Torro Rosso drivers Jean-Éric Vergne and Daniel Ricciardo are far more likely to be there to pick up the last point or two than the Williams drivers as is the Sauber driver Nico Hülkenberg. Nico’s Mexican team mate Mexico Esteban Gutiérrez has yet to score and yet to show the capacity to punch above his weight.

The Marussia rookie Jules Bianchi appears to have the legs of the Caterham drivers Charles Pic and Giedo van der Garde but neither team have finished in the points since they joined the Formula One circus in 2010 and the pressure is on Caterham to up it’s game and improve on it’s best 14th place finish this season. Like Gutiérrez rookie Max Chilton has yet to punch above his weight in the second Marussia.

To summarize, I’m going with Alonso to win for Ferrari, who have not won here since 2001. I expect a strong second place finish from Sebastian Vettel in the Red Bull and the consistent Kimi Räikkönen to round out the podium positions for Lotus. Mercedes Benz may shine on Saturday and once again almost certainly fail on Sunday.

Lets play dice!

 

 

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Fortune Favours Fernando and Ferrari – Gran Premio de España

May 13, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Fernando Alonso scored his 3rd win of the 2014 season in Spain.

Yesterday’s Spanish Grand Prix marked the first quarter of the 19 race 2013 F1™ championship season and all three championship protagonists came away from Barcelona having done exactly what they had to do, if no more, to stay in the game over the remaining three quarters of the season.

After mishaps in Malaysia and Bahrain, Ferrari were in a must win situation to stay in championship contention and they had to turn everything – engine management, differential and brake bias settings, up on their steering wheels a little louder than everyone else. Strategically Ferrari went for an aggressive four stop pit strategy, which meant they could run much faster than the Lotus and Red Bull teams that had the luxury of opting for conservative three stop strategies afforded by the considerable margin over the Italian team in the championship points standings.

As to be expected from a two time World Champion and contender for a third championship, Fernando delivered all that was required from his 5th place start on the grid and ended up taking a comfortable and largely unchallenged win on home ground.

2007 World Champion Kimi Räikkönen needed to finish better than series leader Sebastian Vettel, which his second place finish in the Genii financed Lotus ensured.  Kimi was also fortunate that Ferrari Engineer Rob Smedley managed to guide Ferrari’s de facto number two Felipe Massa to a third place finish ahead of Vettel. In so doing the Maranello team, effectively gifted former Ferrari driver Kimi three additional championship points.

Mercedes had one lap pace, but couldn’t stop the charging Alonso.

Of the three emergent 2013 World Drivers championship contenders Vettel was able to take it easy in Spain his mission was to conserve his equipment and come out of the Spanish Grand Prix with the championship points lead. With each driver only allowed to use eight motors a season preserving equipment at every opportunity affords the best possibility of running faster in the final run to the championship at the end of the season.

If justification was needed for Vettel to steal seven championship points from his team mate Mark Webber in Malaysia, coming out of Barcelona with a two point championship lead, from a forth place finish, was it. Webber finished 5th behind his team mate in yesterdays race ensuring that Red Bull still has a 14 point lead in the manufacturers championship. Sebastian however must be disappointed to have finished behind Massa, who is unlikely to be in contention for championship honours at the seasons end.

Nico Rosberg fell back through the field with failing tyres.

For the third time in succession Mercedes Benz stole the qualifying headlines locking out the front row of the grid in Barcelona with Nico Rosberg on pole ahead of team mate 2008 World Champion Lewis Hamilton.  As in China and Bahrain Saturday’s success was not translated into any meaningful result on Sunday,  Nico came home a lucky 6th, while Hamilton finished outside the points in 12th wryly commenting over the pit radio that he was racing a “Williams” as if to ask ‘Why’ ?

The championship will be a slog for the Mercedes Benz team this summer which is difficult to fathom given they are acknowledged to have the strongest motors on the F1™ grid. It will be interesting to see if the forth placed team elect to sort out their cars handling or simply throw all of their resources into preparing for next year which sees the introduction of new V6 turbo charged motors.

Paul di Resta did well to finish 7th from a tenth place start, but he really should have snatched 6th from struggling Rosberg in the closing laps, his Force India team were willing him on over the radio, but Paul could not make the pass with the half a chance, going down the long start finish straight, that was available two laps from home.

McLaren blew a chance to finish 6th by issuing thinly disguised team orders to Sergio Perez, who was advised to look after his tyres rather and settle for a 9th place finish, rather  than to pass his team mate Jenson Button who finished 8th. The latter was the slower of the two on older tyres and in no position to defend himself while the Perez appeared quick enough to have caught and passed the battle between Rosberg and di Resta.

After 2009 World Champion Jenson’s vocal public  spat Perez in Bahrain the McLaren team management are going to have to be more firm with Jenson if he cannot keep the pace with his Mexican team mate. That bad advice to Perez means that McLaren are 3 points adrift of 5th place Force India when they might have been a couple of points ahead in the constructors championship.

Australian Danielle Ricardo scored a valuable final point for the second string Ferrari powered Torro Rosso team which is now three points ahead of 8th placed Sauber and 20 behind the struggling McLaren Team.

In 2012 Williams and Pastor Maldonado showed promise. They haven’t scored a single point in 2013.

It’s hard to fathom, but a year ago Pastor Maldonado won this race for Williams, this year the Williams team has failed to score a single point and has not remotely looked like it might. Before the race Pastor claimed that Williams has a “plan B” for the Renault powered FW35, to which one wag on a forum quipped ” Sounds like an appointment with the crusher”, joking aside Williams need some drastic action simply to get some points on the table.

Pirelli received harsh criticism for not providing more durable tyres in Spain and have promised that 2 and 3 stop strategies will be the order of the day by the British Grand Prix.

Ferrari were brave and grabbed this race by the scruff of the neck and reaped the rewards, Alonso’s haul of 25 points still leaves him 17 points adrift of the top of the table with a doable if slightly against the odds chance of winning the title, while also giving him and the Ferrari team some much needed momentum for the European season.

I hope you will join me next week for a preview of the forthcoming casino that is the Grand Prix de Monaco held on the famous streets of Monte Carlo.

 

 

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RIAM Joins New Era Circuit Of The Americas F1 Viewing Faithful

November 19, 2012 By 1 Comment

Riverside International Automotive Museum hosted an opportunity to hear the thoughts and experiences of Tony Settember (center) and Don Nichols (right) as interviewed by RIAM Public Relations director, Thomas Stahler (Left). Image Credit: Edmund Jenks (2012)

RIAM Joins New Era Circuit Of The Americas F1 Viewing Faithful

This last weekend, the United States saw the return of Formula One international open wheel racing to the series’ world hopping schedule. The race held at the new purpose built Circuit of the Americas (COTA), 3.427-mile (5.515 km) motor racing circuit south of Austin, Texas, marked the return of F1 racing to the United States after a four-season hiatus.

Recognizing the pent-up demand for viewing and sharing time with like-minded individuals of this inaugural event, the Riverside International Automotive Museum (RIAM) in Riverside, California … located not too far from the site of the famed Riverside International Raceway purpose built road circuit and was set up, in part, to archive and honor the history of this great track … opened its doors and hosted a viewing party.

View Slideshow: RIAM joins new era Circuit of the Americas F1 viewing faithful

During the broadcast of the COTA USGP from Austin, Texas, SPEED Channel’s Bob Varsha mentioned that there were many viewing parties being held throughout the United States and that one of note was the gathering being hosted by the Riverside International Automotive Museum which featured Tony Settember and Don Nichols and had on view many great historic open wheel racing cars created from the Dan Gurney Eagle operation.

On the podium at the Circuit of the Americas, four past champions celebrate the running of the first Formula One race held in the United States in four years – pictured from left to right: Sebastian Vettel, Mario Andretti, Lewis Hamilton, and Fernando Alonso. Image Credit: Edmund Jenks via projection TV from SPEED Channel (2012)

This excerpted and edited from the Bleacher Report –

Formula One: Hamilton Wins USGP, but Circuit of the Americas Is the Real Star
By Craig Christopher (Featured Columnist) on November 19, 2012

Formula One racing has made a triumphant return to the United States after a four-season hiatus, only to find that some things just haven’t changed.

Lewis Hamilton was the last F1 driver to stand atop the podium at a U.S. Grand Prix when he claimed victory at the final Indianapolis race in 2007.He stood atop the podium again in Austin as he held Sebastian Vettel at bay to claim a hard-fought race win.

While the race winner may not have changed, everything else has.

The fans were treated to a great race, with lots of overtaking, some outstanding wheel-to-wheel action, breathtaking pitstops and Ferrari even delivered a little bit of the intrigue and shenanigans that F1 is famous for.

And it all happened on a track deep in the heart of Texas.
—-
With F1 finding difficulty securing a permanent home since the 20-year tenure at Watkins Glenn, all hope turned to the new Circuit of the Americas in Austin Texas.

It didn’t disappoint.

The circuit is a custom F1 track, designed—as are nearly all new tracks—by German racetrack architect Hermann Tilke. At first glance, it has all of the hallmarks of every other Tilke track—the big runoff areas, the flowing combination of corners, long straights followed by a hairpin—but it worked.
—-
It was a race that F1 had to get right.

With the 2005 Indianapolis debacle still lingering in the American fans’ memory and with no American teams and no American drivers, the product had to deliver on its own terms. It had to bury the perception that F1 is boring and lacking in excitement.

Any lingering doubts were put to rest, despite the dominance of Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton, with action from one end of the field to the other.

Hamilton took the most of a momentary distraction for Vettel, as he got tangled behind a back-marker, making the pivotal pass that Vettel was unable to recover from.

While Hamilton claimed the victory, it was the Circuit of the Americas that was the superstar of the weekend, aided and abetted by a massive crowd of 117,429 fans (via CircuitoftheAmericas.com).

The drivers loved it [all three - Hamilton, Vittle, and Alonzo respectively], and probably would have said so without prompting, even if Mario Andretti didn’t pleadingly fish for praise in yet another pointless podium interview by an ex-driver [and champion].

Hamilton told F1.com:

There are a couple of Grands Prix that are somehow out on their own: there’s Monaco, Silverstone, Montreal, Spa and Monza. Now you can this circuit to that list – it’s already one of the best racetracks in the world, maybe even right up there in the top three.


Then again, he won the race—he would say that.
[Reference Here]

The museum moved many of its 200 mph cars it has on display, set up a 9′X 12′projection screen and tables on the floor, prepared an Italian salad and sandwich lunch, invited a car constructor and some drivers of F1 and sport car racing note for post race interviews and schmoozing … thus turning the museum into a social rumpus-room of F1 joy.

On hand were F1 winning chassis constructor Don Nichols, who created the Shadow cars that raced in F1 – and would spawn the Arrows F1 Team, Formula 5000, and Can-Am in the 1970′s and 1980′s (Alan Jones recorded his first win at the Austrian Grand Prix, a result which also provided a welcome boost to the lesser-funded teams as it was Shadow’s first victory), Shadow Cars team crewman Gene Lentz, F1 driver Tony Settember (1962-1963), with legendary road racers John Morton and Davey Jordan.

Discover how this “five stripe” helmet adornment came about through the stories related by Don Nichols and the Shadow Cars effort to become a part of F1 history – Listen to Audio File linked below. Image Credit: “F1 Biography: Still in the shadows”

Interviewed in the post race festivities by RIAM PR Director, Thomas Stahler were Tony Settember and Don Nichols with a presentation to RIAM by Gene Lentz a donation of memorabilia from Shadow Cars to museum President, Doug Magnon. AUDIO FILE HERE (43 min.)

There’s a saying in Texas. “I wasn’t born here, but I got here as fast as I could.” This is the first proper U.S. race since Watkins Glen and, at last, COTA represents a worthy home for the USGP event.

That could also be said of this Southern California RIAM viewing party event. Here’s hoping the COTA F1 USGP viewing party becomes an annual Southern California tradition. A Grand Prix time was had by all.

… notes from The EDJE

** Article first published as RIAM Joins New Era Circuit Of The Americas F1 Viewing Faithful on Technorati **

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No Betting on Wet Silverstone Formula One Race

July 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Ferrari President, Luca di Montezemolo, not happy despite win at Valencia.

Let there be no doubt that the only constant in this years Formula One season is its unpredictability. Consistency is there, if only posing as a small token of homage paid to the brilliance of the drivers themselves. Alonso, Vettel and Hamilton come to mind.

Silverstone should, by all rights, be the one track where McLaren and Red Bull will shine-perhaps.

McLaren threw down the gauntlet today proclaiming that their new upgrades for Silverstone should put them on par with Red Bull.

That statement is a bit misleading as Martin Whitmarsh, McLaren team principle, admitted or at the very least hopes that Vettel’s Valencia pace was track specific. One second per lap is an eternity in Formula One.

Immediately following the Valencia race, Ferrari’s President, Luca di Montezemolo, said in no uncertain terms that Red Bull worried him. Translated that meant a screaming, arm waving Italian style meltdown meeting was about to happen in Maranello. My bet is that it did.

He said, “I don’t want outsiders to think that one win is enough for us to put on a fireworks display,” he added, “It would be a big mistake to think the win in Valencia means we have done enough. We have a competitive car, but to win, we must do even more.”

Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso, who is tantamount to a pit bull on acid, was the saving grace of Valencia by not easing off and using his considerable skills to stay near the front. The fact that Vettel’s Red Bull and Romain Grosjean’s Lotus mechanically failed is irrelevant to the driver’s points at the moment. The fact that they were both ahead of McLaren and Ferrari is very relevant to the livelihoods of the engineers from Renault, the engine supplier for Red Bull and Lotus, and the team technicians.

Like an old re-run from Star Trek, Alonso proclaimed that the Ferrari’s need “more speed.” They all need more speed but in Ferrari’s case, they need it on the medium-speed corners as well as grabbing traction sooner on slow corner exit.

Silverstone, were it to stay dry, would give a good indication as to whether or not Red Bull has actually found something. However McLaren, Ferrari and Lotus haven’t remained static with Silverstone updates. With rain, we may never see those upgrades reach their potential until Hockenheim several weeks hence.

Unfortunately for Red Bull, it is not likely to be a dry race or qualifying. Rain is, after all, the great equalizer. Mercedes is seeding clouds as we write. Lotus may as well employ the Navaho Indians to gain wet weather favor.

Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull have something to prove at Silverstone but may not get the chance

The rain may very well see Force India near the front joined by Lotus. Perhaps Raikkonen can satisfy his urge to win this go around giving him good reason to party, but don’t rule out his team mate, Romain Grosjean, who looks for all the world ready to take a win.

The greatest challenge to racing in the rain at Silverstone is that the corners are breathtakingly fast. Dry it’s a beautiful thing, wet is a challenge but manageable, too much rain and you can’t see the car in front of you.

Ferrari’s Felipe Massa may have said it best, “It’s okay if you are right at the front, but if you’re not in the top three on track, you actually have to look to the side rather than straight ahead to see where you are and this is the only type of condition we all hate, as you are driving blind.”  Massa needs a strong result and soon as it’s no secret he’s in a musical chairs position, the difference is young wolves are circling for his seat, not cute girls.

As defiant as “Uncle Hugo” himself, Venezuelan driver Pastor Maldonado has vowed not to change his aggressive driving. He may not have to change as in the wet he has the ability to take out several cars around him, which is not to say he isn’t incredibly good, but impatience in a wet race is an E-ticket into the gravel traps. If it’s dry he could be a factor.

Expect the unexpected again this weekend at Silverstone as this has been the only constant in 2012.

It’s been a fantastic season so far.

 

Maria di Villota lost an eye and suffered massive skull and facial injuries in a Marussia F1 testing accident

All of the staff at Motorsports Unplugged beg to offer our heartfelt wishes for a speedy recovery for Maria di Villota, the Marussia F1 test driver who was critically injured in a testing crash this past week. It is a stark reminder of just how dangerous auto racing can be. Her driving career may be over, but she has a life to live and we wish her the best.

 

 

 

 

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Formula One 2012: The Best Racing In The World

June 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Fernando Alonso scored an emotional victory in his home country of Spain to the delight of the crowd.

One can argue that Formula One has been predictable in the last 15 years, but that has most certainly not been the case in the 2012 season. The reasons are myriad but include a limited amount of track time due to rain during the allotted winter testing, the exclusion of blown diffusers and perhaps the most influential of all, the Pirelli tires.

In a season that has run eight races with only one repeat winner, that being Fernando Alonso of Ferrari, the team principles have conceded that they have no idea how to predict a winner at any given race. Good. The manufacturers want to sell cars and showcase their technology, but the fans around the world are what give Formula One such nationalistic popularity.

If such a scale existed, barring Fantasy Racing, predictability could arguably be placed on a scale and measured in degrees. The 2012 season is no different. The very same players are at the top of the heap and the new kids on the block, Lotus, Force India and Sauber have simply added to the mix of potential winners.

Alonso said prior to the European Grand Prix that Formula One seemed like a ‘lottery’-depending on the track anyone could emerge from nowhere to take a win. So far, that really hasn’t been the case. Red Bull sits squarely atop the constructers points followed by McLaren, Lotus, Ferrari and Mercedes. So consistency is beginning to emerge and become the one thing the drivers can cling to in hopes of winning a drivers championship.

Pirelli’s tires have proven to be the one major factor in how these cars react to any given track and that has become the big unknown. Each car has a different appetite at each track to the assigned tires from Pirelli. What’s wrong with that? In a world that’s reeling from economic uncertainty, the entertainment provided by this unknown is worth millions of dollars in viewership across the globe.

Grosjean tried valiantly but mechanical problems left him wondering what might have been.

In America predictability equates to boring. When Schumacher was dominating the headlines and the track, the U.S. audience tuned out in droves. When Sebastian Vettel had his season of total dominance, the U.S. audiences didn’t bother to watch after the first few races, it was far too predictable. Vettel to P1, Vettel disappears at the start like the Road Runner from Wile. E. Coyote. That was it. The 2012 season has caught them all by surprise.

Adrian Newey, designer of the RB8 Red Bull, has conceded that even as fast as Vettel was at Valencia, before succumbing to a bad Renault alternator, it’s a race-by-race season so far. Martin Whitmarsh of McLaren said, “It is very, very difficult,” he explained. “Everyone has given up predicting this season, so we have to accept that you have to turn up at each event and do the best job you can. That is what we will seek to do at Silverstone.”

That is where the excitement has come from this year. Every team would love to come straight out of the transporter and be a contender but the data they have hasn’t translated well to the Pirelli tires. They degrade at different rates depending on the driver, the set-up and the track conditions. It’s almost like rain, the great equalizer, where a driver’s skill, along with the engineers, have to make quick decisions on set-up.

All of the Cray computers, the wind tunnel information and simulations haven’t been able to transfer accurately to the actual track. Lotus was tipped to take Valencia and but for an alternator, might have taken the win, but even if Romain Grosjean’s car hadn’t shut down, he would have still have to have gotten by Fernando Alonso-easier said than done. The human element has been harder for the engineers to weave into their equations than they may have once thought.

Is this a bit of chicanery for the show’s sake? If it is, it’s working. If not, it is nonetheless taxing to the manufacturers, engineers and the drivers. They simply aren’t used to not knowing what to expect in anything less than predictable conditions. And, predictable conditions are never realistic. Temperatures change, track surfaces are different, humidity affects the engine performance as well as some of the colder climate drivers.

Whatever the outcome of the season, the racing has everyone looking towards the next race, Silverstone, rather than who’ll take the championship.

It’s exactly as it should be.

 

 

 

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The 2012 Grand Prix of Monaco: The Most Unpredictable of All

May 22, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Has Ferrari gotten close enough technically to give Fernando Alonso the season's first repeat winner

In years past it hasn’t taken some obscure algorithm by Stephen Hawking to predict the winner at Monaco. You qualify on the pole and you’re expected to win the race. Not this year. The 2012 season has been the most unpredictable of the modern era. The reasons are a grab bag: The Pirelli tire degradation rate, which is a moving target depending on which tire Pirelli hands out at each race, the weather in testing and at each track, and finally the nature of the cars performance having become more track specific than at any other time in recent memory. You can’t get more track-specific than Monaco.

No one, drivers and engineers included, really know just how deeply their car is going to fall in love with the Monaco layout. Pat Fry, Ferrari’s Technical Director, seems to have a probable answer, but probable still places any explanation in the “Who Knows” category. According to Fry, “It is certainly unpredictable, it varies, and small changes in track temperature have a large effect on tire performance. I think it was China where that showed up the most.”

China or no, the swings in car set-up married with driver style along with weather conditions (you can add your own specific opinion here) has created a guessing game that has even the most powerful Cray computer rolling dice. If you add all these variables together then you have Monaco.

Monaco is the only track left on the Formula One calendar that is a true street course. It’s narrow, it has precious little run-off area, it’s bumpy and it’s mercilessly unforgiving. Not a good scenario when trying to plan a strategy. Constructing and executing a race strategy has been tantamount to a best guess so far this year.

Now there’s a new star in the show: The Super Soft Pirelli tire. This is the first time that tire will be employed at Monaco. Tire degradation management is of paramount importance to winning or losing this race and make no mistake, if the tires aren’t managed at Jenson Button levels, then all the race strategies that the team principles have concocted are useless. It’s one thing to have a plan, it’s entirely another matter to execute that plan. In this weekend’s race, truly the mission will not survive the first shot.

Pirelli's Super Soft Tire may be the key to winning or losing the GP of Monaco

The nature of driving Monaco is that it’s tight with huge acceleration coming out of the many slow corners. Wheel spin will be a challenge to say the least. Jenson Button is generally considered the smoothest driver in F1, but the McLaren isn’t optimal for this track. Mechanical grip will be more important than aero and getting the power down without burning up the rear tires will be difficult. This is one track where having good traction on turn exit is imperative. Has Ferrari successfully cured that glaring problem? It seems they have, but Barcelona is only one race and doesn’t represent Monaco.

Monaco in a ‘normal’ season, which is to say whoever is on the pole will run away, is not necessarily what we’re going to see. No matter, we will see Herculean efforts to start from the pole, this track is notoriously difficult to execute full-on racing passes and being up at the front gives the driver clean air and the ability to dictate their lines. But this one may be different. It appears that no one is going to run away at the front, despite their best efforts-and, their best efforts may be too much.

Should you choose to use statistics from the last five races, which is foolish at best, then you would have to look at the drivers who’ve been the most consistent: Sebastian Vettel, Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton. But wait…Hamilton doesn’t have a win and Pastor Maldonado does, and, Maldonado will get another win, Monaco, just ask him.

This writer isn’t betting for or against Williams repeating. Right now Pastor, the “Macho Man”, Maldonado is reveling in Latin American glory. He has shown flashes of brilliance beyond the maiden win and has a great deal of past experience at this track in the lower formulas, but if you really unpack what Ferrari has done with their exit speeds, stability and the fact that Fernando Alonso is at the wheel they could pull off a victory. Sauber? Sergio Perez can still taste that “almost” victory at Malaysia. What if Raikkonen and Boullier actually pull off a strategy that doesn’t look like a game of twister with old people?

Do you really want the bottom line?

Trying to pick a winner here is like men trying to pick out women’s clothes.

No one wins, everybody’s mad and you wont get laid.

 

 

 

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Odds Are Against Vettel Surpassing Schumacher

October 14, 2011 By Leave a Comment

When Niki Lauda and others say that Sebastian Vettel can surpass Michael Schumacher’s 7 World Formula One titles, what they’re saying is it’s possible, not necessarily probable. When you read the European motoring press headlines, they’re usually taken out of context in order to create sensationalism that readers will want to dig into. Reality is something else entirely.

Niki Lauda actually said that it’s possible and mathematically it is, it just isn’t likely in todays Formula One landscape. You have to look out on the horizon and see just whom he’s up against, both drivers and teams.

Sebastian Vettel is locked into Red Bull until 2014, in Formula One post Ferrari-Schumacher, that’s an eternity. Ferrari and McLaren have no intention of allowing Red Bull to continue to dominate, Adrian Newey or not. They might, but it’s getting harder to pull it off. Think Brawn.

If Red Bull stumbles in 2012 and doesn’t deliver a car suitable for Vettel in 2012 and 2013, then two years will have gone asunder. Where he would go after 2013 is irrelevant if he can’t deliver two more titles in two years. Yes, he would only be 28, but in Formula One, he has to make exactly the right move to exactly the right team at the right time. Add in another little problem in making a decision, the engines will no longer be V8’s but rather V6 Turbocharged power-plants. But wait, don’t answer, this is Formula One, it could be a four cylinder engines yet.

Timing is more in play now than it was in the Schumacher era. Schumacher’s competitors, Mika Haikkinen excluded, were not at the levels of ability and team technical prowess they are now, so Vettel doesn’t merely have to show up and drive, he has to pick wisely. So far he has with short contracts, score one intelligent move for the German.

The answer is in the ages of the drivers, the length of their contracts and the ability of a team to deliver a car that is dominant. The RB7 most certainly is dominant in Vettel’s hands, but not Webber. One need not be reminded that Alonso had a year from hell in his brief tenure with McLaren. Accusations of McLaren taking all of his setups and handing them over to Hamilton’s engineers as well as favoring Hamilton on pit strategy seem plausible considering Alonso was openly vocal about it. Remember Alonso sitting in the pit box holding up Hamilton, there’s a reason for it.

Jenson Button doesn’t mind the atmosphere as he has taken control of the McLaren team and been rewarded with a long-term contract. Make that a lifetime contract for potentially 70 million USD. The British Champion is 31 years old and the shelf life of the present day F1 driver has grown shorter.

So with Button sewn up that leaves Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes as possibilities for Vettel should Red Bull not keep its technical advantage. Alonso is signed with Ferrari until 2016 with a contract that would make most people weep. That leaves a gap with Ferrari for two years and also with McLaren if Hamilton tries to jump ship to Ferrari or Red Bull. Hamilton’s contract with McLaren is up in 2012 as of this writing.

If all this sounds confusing it really isn’t. Sebastian Vettel won a World Championship the year after he joined Red Bull. Fernando Alonso won a World Championship a year after he joined Renault. Jenson Button won a World Championship the year Ross Brawn was basically paid to take the Honda team. The common pattern is that in each case these three drivers had the best car on the grid. Vettel’s ability is undeniable but if his team, whomever it may be, stumbles and doesn’t provide the best car, it’s game on for Alonso, Hamilton or Jenson Button.

The point is that it is possible for Vettel to take 7 titles, but with the company he now keeps, it’s very improbable. Did I mention Nico Rosberg?

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Singapore Grand Prix: Is it Vettel’s Title?

September 23, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Singapore Grand Prix is always one of the more difficult races that the Formula One teams have to face. It’s unpredictable with its weather, its temperatures and it’s a proper street circuit. In fact, it’s the closest in comparison to Monaco in terms of difficulty with low grip level and driver fatigue, particularly with the bumps in the track surface.

That doesn’t detract from the almost unanimous sentiment that it’s one of the most enjoyable for the drivers despite all of the variables. Without question the favorites have to be the usual suspects in the lineup of Alonso, Vettel, Hamilton, Webber and Button. Alonso has taken two of the last three victories here, but that was on different tire compounds and different circumstances.

Vettel will want to immediately go for the pole out of sheer defense as qualifying for this race could be wet or dry and the race itself potentially run under both conditions. He has to defend his title and here he must get the hole-shot into the first turn or he runs the risk of being collected in a melee. Alonso, on the other hand, has shown the Ferrari can provide him blistering starts and if he can take a pole here getting by him wont be a forgone conclusion as it was in Monza.

The tire compounds are going to be the soft and super soft Pirelli’s which suit the Ferrari’s on tight, twisting tracks such as this that also require high down-force. The new element here may be the DRS system, although the length of deployment and the fact that only one section can be used may or may not prove to be beneficial to anyone. If it rains, all bets are off as the Renaults and Torro Rosso’s will move into the fray, and it might very well be just that on a low grip, slick street circuit at night.

The focus that the drivers will have to maintain will be difficult with so many corners and the bright lights always tempting a distraction from precise driving. Physical fitness and length of the race, it’s the longest on the schedule, may prove to be the deciding factor in who makes a mistake and who takes advantage of it.

Six races remain in the season, including Singapore, and Hamilton, Alonso and Button have all conceded that Vettel will take the title, but that hasn’t stopped them from going all out to win every race they can. In fact, it may be somewhat of a relief that they can now concentrate on winning while the teams back home develop the 2012 cars. That makes this race even more interesting, after all, there’s nothing more dangerous than a man with nothing to lose.

If Vettel doesn’t take pole, he may very well opt to settle in behind whomever gets the lead in turn one. It may be better to take the points than risk throwing an entire race away. However this race has always been known for it’s crashes and the safety car being deployed more than once during the event, which gives even more reason for Vettel and Webber to lock out the front row. If they don’t, then Alonso will go for the lead in turn one come Hell or high water as Ferrari has ceased development of the 150 Italia.

That’s the beauty of Formula One, you really don’t know what’s going to happen, until it does.

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Spa-Francorchamps: Vettel Extends F1 Lead

August 29, 2011 By Leave a Comment


Sebastian Vettel won the Grand Prix of Belgium Sunday and extended his World Championship points lead. The McLaren and Ferrari teams couldn’t find the pace in the closing stages of the famous race. Lewis Hamilton crashed and was seemingly dazed.

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Schumacher’s 20 Years Formula One:Spa-Francorchamp

August 26, 2011 By Leave a Comment


Michael Schumacher has put 20 years into active driving in Formula One…that has to be a modern era record. This weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix takes place on one of the world’s classic tracks. The corner Eau Rouge is one of the most famous in racing.

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