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Beam Me Up A Winner Scotty – Fantasy Insight Pocono 2

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Martin Truex, Jr

Quite often when you hear other NASCAR fantasy handicappers talk about the second race of the year at a track, you hear them mention the top five or top 10 from the earlier race as a guide to who might do well in the upcoming race.

That makes empirical sense especially since the races at Pocono and Michigan are so close together on the calendar. But in order to understand statistics a handicapper needs to dig into the data to see if there is any correlation. Let’s take a look at the last three years’ worth of data to see how tricky the triangle is to handicap.  

Last year if you would have applied the results from the first race of the year at Pocono to your picks the second time around you would have had one of the worst fantasy race teams of the year.

Only two of the drivers who finished in the top ten in the first Pocono race were able to repeat that performance in the second race. One year does not make a trend so let’s take a look at 2011 and 2010. Six drivers had top 10s in both races in 2011 with five completing the double in 2010.

So what do all of these numbers tell us?

It is apparent from the numbers above over the past three years that despite such a short time span between the first and second race at Pocono, the differences can be quite different.

Changes in NASCAR happen fast and furious and that will be the case heading to Pocono for the second time. Earlier this year Toyota was dealing with engine durability when it headed to Pocono and admitted to cutting back on the horsepower. It borrowed from the old Dick Trickle saying, “In order to finish first you must first finish.”

Heading to Pocono for the second time the Captain Kirk at Toyota has called down to Scotty in the engineering department at Toyota Racing Development and told Scotty he needs more power!

Will the TRD dilithium crystals hold together or will Scotty scream out, “I’m giving her all she’s got Captain. She’s gonna blow!” My top pick to click, Martin Truex Jr., depends on the improved dilithium crystals to power him to victory. Beam up a winner Scotty!

Good luck with your fantasy racing picks this week and don’t forget to send in your pick for “Whiteboard Fantasy Racing” this week for Pocono.      

Send in your pick to win this week’s Cup race to dennis@racetalkradio.com [2] for a chance to win a copy of the National Speedway Directory from SpeedwaysOnline.com. 

National Speedway Directory

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Jimmie Johnson

Hot off the press the 2013 edition of the National Speedway Directory is now available. For over 3 decades the NSD has given race fans and teams information about every track in North America. Order your copy today at http://speedwaysonline.com [4]

Weather Report

Partly cloudy and cool with a green flag temperature around 70F

If you have a question about Fantasy Racing send it to dennis@racetalkradio.com [2] and get it answered next week.

NASCAR by the Numbers

Using a proprietary race analysis technique we take the fans inside the numbers every week. DMIC’s rating system has been in use since 2002 and has proven to pick the contenders from the pretenders!

Consistency is King (Last Five Races)

Driver

Last 5

J Johnson

95

C Bowyer

91

K Harvick

90

D Earnhardt Jr

90

J Gordon

89

Ky Busch

88

Ku Busch

88

J McMurray

88

K Kahne

88

M Kenseth

87

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Clint Bowyer

Horses for Courses (Track Rating)

Driver

Course

J Johnson

95

R Newman

93

J Gordon

92

T Stewart

91

Ku Busch

90

D Earnhardt Jr

89

K Harvick

88

J Logano

88

B Keselowski

88

C Bowyer

87

Type Casting (Track Type Factor)

Driver

Type

Ky Busch

93

G Biffle

93

R Newman

92

D Earnhardt Jr

91

C Edwards

90

K Harvick

88

J Logano

88

M Kenseth

88

T Stewart

87

M Truex

87

Power Rating (240 Minimum to Qualify as Contender)

Driver

Power

J Johnson

275

R Newman

270

D Earnhardt Jr

269

Ky Busch

267

K Harvick

267

J Gordon

263

C Bowyer

263

T Stewart

262

C Edwards

261

Ku Busch

261

M Truex

260

M Kenseth

259

G Biffle

259

J Logano

259

B Keselowski

253

K Kahne

253

J McMurray

251

P Menard

250

J Burton

246

M Ambrose

245

A Almirola

244

D Hamlin

242

JP Montoya

241

M Martin

240

AJ Allmendinger

230

C Mears

229

D Gilliland

228

R Stenhouse Jr

225

T Kvapil

224

D Ragan

222

D Reutimann

222

D Patrick

221

B Labonte

219

D Stremme

215

D Blaney

215

DMIC’s Fantasy Picks presented by Speedwaysonline.com

Each week we will take you beyond the numbers to handicap the field from top to bottom to help your Fantasy Racing team succeed. You are also invited to join Lori Munro and I on “White Board Fantasy Racing” every Monday night on “Doin’ Donuts” at 8pm ET on RaceTalkRadio.com. Win fun prizes by picking just the race winners in our unique format. Send your picks to info@racetalkradio.com [6] to enter.

Top Pick (Last Week Finished 2nd)

Martin Truex Jr- Solid at the Triangle earlier and consistent on flat speedways this year

(30 to 1 Odds)

Best Long Shot (Odds of 20-1 or More) (Last Week Finished 15th)   

Clint Bowyer- Need some 5 Hour Energy when ya go bowlin’

(30 to 1 Odds)  

Top Dogs (Group A in Yahoo) (Last Week Finished 19th)    

Jimmie Johnson- Best bet for a top five in NASCAR racing every week

(3 to 1 Odds)

Second Class (Group B in Yahoo) (Last Week 24th)       

Joey Logano- Won here last season

(25 to 1 Odds)

Middle Packer (Group C in Yahoo) (Last Week Finished 22nd)        

AJ Allmendinger- Good use for a part timer in this group again this week

(100 to 1 Odds)

Crazy 8s for Pocono 2

Each week Lori Munro and Dennis Michelsen battle in the most unique racing game around! We pick one driver each from each 8 driver group using the current points’ standings. Our picks can help you round out your fantasy racing lineup!

Lori won 5-0 in week 20 and Lori leads the game 13-7 for the year

Group 1: Lori picks Jimmie Johnson and Dennis picks Clint Bowyer

Group 2: Dennis picks Martin Truex Jr and Lori picks Jeff Gordon

Group 3: Lori picks Joey Logano and Dennis picks Paul Menard

Group 4: Dennis picks Denny Hamlin and Lori picks Mark Martin

Group 5: Lori picks AJ Allmendinger  and Dennis picks  JJ Yeley

Do you have what it takes to handicap the races? Join Lori and Dennis every week and play in the Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Series! Send your pick for the Cup race to info@racetalkradio.com [6] to enter. Weekly prize given away! 

 

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