It’s Simple: Guys On Top In The Chase Have Performed Better

Although some analysts claim that any driver who starts the Chase for the Sprint Cup with at least two decidedly poor performances has no chance to win a championship, I’ve maintained that, yep, the odds are against him – but nothing is impossible.

I simply think that the completion of a couple of races is too early to determine who is going to win a title or who is already eliminated from contention.

However, there is this truth: It does give us a much better idea of who is going to remain in the running and who’s got to beat some heavy odds to get back into it.

That’s pretty much the situation after the opening Chase races at Chicago and New Hampshire. We have a good sense of which drivers are comfortably in contention, which might feel a sense of urgency and which are hanging by a thread that could snap very quickly.

Not to belabor the obvious here, but how the competitors are sorted in points after two races reflects on their on-track performance. Those who are off to good starts are higher in points than those who have stumbled – hey, that makes sense, right?

Tony Stewart came out of nowhere and won twice in the opening two weeks of the Chase. He vaulted from ninth to first in points. He did the absolute best any driver could do and his reward, for the time being, is to be in the ideal position to win his third career championship.

Kevin Harvick was second in points when the Chase began and held it after his runnerup finish at Chicago. He might still be the leader if he hadn’t stumbled a bit at New Hampshire, where he finished 12th and opened the door for Stewart. Still, Harvick remains No. 2 in the standings, only seven points behind Stewart. Right now Harvick is comfortable.

So are these drivers:

** Brad Keselowski, third place in points, just 11 behind Stewart. Keselowski is the biggest surprise of the Chase, if not the season. He has won three times this year, which earned him entry into the Chase as a “wildcard” and in 11th in points.

He’s been propelled forward by two excellent finishes in the Chase – fifth at Chicago and second at New Hampshire.

** Carl Edwards, fourth in points, 14 behind Stewart. Edwards, to date the top dog in the Chase for Roush Fenway Racing, is another example of what consistency can do. He has finishes of fourth and eighth to date and thus has gained one spot in the standings.

** Jeff Gordon, fifth in points, 23 behind Stewart. Gordon has dropped two positions since the start of the Chase but that would not have happened if he hadn’t stumbled at Chicago with a 24th-place finish. He rebounded at New Hampshire, where he finished fourth. If he hadn’t done that it’s very likely he would be in a more difficult situation.

** Kyle Busch, sixth in points, 26 behind Stewart. The younger Busch came into the Chase seeded No. 1 based upon his four victories this season. But he was 22nd at Chicago and 11th at New Hampshire. His failure to crack the top 10 is the reason for his tumble. However, it could be worse.

** Matt Kenseth, seventh in points but, like Busch, 26 behind Stewart. Kenseth is another example of the benefit of a rebound performance. He was 21st at Chicago (and fell from fourth to 10th in points) before a beneficial sixth-place run at New Hampshire. It’s the same for him as it is for Busch – it could be worse.

Things are considerably more problematic for Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin, eighth through 12 in points, respectively.

Interestingly, only four of the group – Earnhardt Jr., the older Busch, Newman and Johnson – have a top-10 finish in the Chase, and all were achieved in the first race at Chicago.

At New Hampshire, they were 17th (Earnhardt Jr.) or worse, which, as you can easily determine, has put them on shaky ground.

Nearly everyone has suggested that Hamlin, who finished 31st at Chicago and 29th at New Hampshire, is already cooked. He is 12th in points, 66 points in back of Stewart, and it will take a near miracle for him to recoup.

Some have said that Johnson, the five-time defending champion, is also out of the competition. But I don’t think being 29 points out of first place entirely displaces him. Johnson has been known to make up plenty of lost ground in the past – he was 136 points behind in 2006 when it paid 175 points to win. Thus, percentage-wise, he’s not as far in arrears this year.

But he faces a tough task. He’s not alone.

It’s not an impossible one, however. Johnson and Hamlin are certainly capable of winning – even two races in a row. For that matter, so are all the drivers in the Chase.

Given that, starting at Dover this weekend, things could get topsy-turvy.

But it won’t make any difference for those drivers who continue to do what all racers who strive for a championship should – win races if possible; otherwise, be consistent.

Sounds logical, obvious and ridiculously simple, doesn’t it? But it’s an absolute fact. We’ve seen evidence of it in the Chase already and there will be more in the weeks to come.

Stewart’s Timing Perfect In First Chase Race

Making the right moves involves timing. And it appears Tony Stewart knows something about timing. At least, he showed that on Monday on the race track.

Disappointed and frustrated for most of the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup season in a fruitless search for victory, Stewart finally won his first race of the year in the Geico 400 at Chicagoland Speedway.

The race was the first of 10 in the Chase and Stewart’s victory propelled him to second place in the point standings, just seven points behind new leader Kevin Harvick.

Since Stewart came into the Chicagoland race ninth in points – after sweating out several weeks of doubt that he would make it at all – finishing first was indeed a good move.

Stewart’s late-race strategy also proved to be a good move. The Geico 400 was yet another fuel mileage race. As usual, most of the competitors were doing their best to save gas, but many of them ran out anyway.

On the last lap, several of the lead-lap cars bailed, the victims of empty gas tanks. Had they been able to run the distance the final standings would have looked much different.

Stewart, however, followed his preservation strategy perfectly – another good move – and it paid off handsomely.

“You couldn’t pick a better weekend to get that first win of the year than here at Chicago, obviously,” said Stewart, who has now won at least one race in each of the last 13 seasons, his entire Cup career. “We felt like there were three or four opportunities earlier in the year that we let some get away from us.  But we have struggled.

“We’ve had a miserable year. But the last three weeks have really started coming into it. We had a really good run in Atlanta. Good solid run last week at Richmond.

“Then to come out this weekend, I don’t think Darian (Grubb, crew chief), or either one of us, thought that we had as good a car as we needed to win today. But it didn’t take long in the race to figure out that we were pretty solid.

“It was just getting the track position.”

Stewart got that position. Afterward it was a matter of saving fuel.

The final scenario was set up on lap 213, when a caution period began after debris was found on the track. The leaders pitted. Martin Truex Jr. stayed out on the track and was in first place when the race restarted.

Matt Kenseth was second and Stewart third.

Ten laps later Kenseth passed Truex Jr. to take the lead and 10 laps after that, Stewart moved into first place after dueling with Kenseth.

Truex Jr. pitted on lap 254 with just 13 laps left in the race. From that point on it was obvious none of the leaders was going to pit. The plan was to finish the distance and in some cases, it would be a huge gamble, as some crew chiefs felt their drivers would come up as much as three laps short.

“At the end you hate to have to play the fuel mileage game,” Stewart said. “But that’s just the way the caution came out. And we came in and got fuel and Darian told me we had to save a lap’s worth of fuel.

“So we had a whole run to do it. But we kept a lot of pressure on Matt and finally got by him and once we got out to a second and a half, two-second lead we could start backing off the pace and start saving fuel.

“And I felt like I’d saved enough to get us to the end. But we came off of Turn 2 after we got the checkered and the fuel pressure was down to two pounds, and it stayed there until just shortly after we picked up the checkered flag at the flag stand. We didn’t do any wild burnout or anything like that and ran out before we ever got on pit road.

“So we were closer than I wanted to be. But we didn’t have anything to lose. Where we’re at in The Chase right now, we had to press.”

Virtually everyone in the Chase still in contention for a top-10 finish pressed, too – it’s expected of them in the “playoffs.”

But it didn’t pay off all around. On the last few laps, especially the last, so many cars turned toward pit road or fell off the pace it looked like a fleet of commuters on the freeway backed up at an exit ramp.

Among those who ran out of gas were five-time champion Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin and Kenseth.

Newman finished eighth, Johnson 10th and Kenseth 21st. All are championship contenders.

Their misfortune helped other competitors gain position at race’s end. Harvick, last week’s winner at Richmond, moved into second place.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., who had a good run most of the day, wound up in third place. Carl Edwards moved up to fourth and Brad Keselowski was fifth.

Earnhardt Jr., another driver concerned about making the Chase, soared from 10th in points to fifth, one position behind Kurt Busch. Edwards moved from fifth to third and Keselowski took a hike from 11th place as a “wildcard” entry to sixth.

Seventh through 12th in points are, in order, Newman, Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and .

The Geico 400 certainly made an impact on the Chase. For some drivers, it was bad and for others, very good.

For Stewart it was perfect.

But it must be noted, again, that the race was the first of 10 that will determine the champion.

There is a long way to go. And a lot can happen.

Loudon Cup Race and Waltrip Sues Williams F1

The Cup race at Loudon, NH yesterday produced a badly needed win for Ryan Newman. The competition has tightened. Michael Waltrip has filed suit against Williams F1 Engineering for hiring away Mike Coughlan, the designer caught up in the F1 espionage scandal.

The Punishment Fit The Crime – At Least This Time

Like most fans, I sometimes wonder if NASCAR’s penalties are effective. Do they, in fact, appropriately punish the offenders and curb the rise of, uh, crime?

I can recall a time in years past when NASCAR’s rulings were about as effective as a butter knife cutting hard cardboard. A punishment was little more than a slap on the wrist.

Oh, there were exceptions, of course. There was the time in late ‘70s when, after a wreck at Darlington, the entire side of D.K. Ulrich’s Chevrolet was stripped away. Revealed to all was a hidden nitrous oxide (laughing gas) bottle, obviously illegal. Ulrich was suspended for the final 12 races of the season.

Talk about a huge financial hit – Ulrich’s season wages plopped him at the poverty line.

There are other examples of NASCAR heavy-handedness but for the most part, NASCAR’s penalties were inconspicuous. A small fine here; probation there. Seldom were points taken away.

That changed fairly recently. When NASCAR introduced what was once known as the “car of tomorrow,” it made it very clear that the rules that applied to it, which were very strenuous and demanding, would be fully enforced.

NASCAR had prepared the car to its own standards, which were set to make it the safest, and most equal in performance, than had ever entered the sanctioning body’s Cup circuit.

It wasn’t going to let innovative engineers, crew chiefs, engineers or anyone else fool around with it.

Not that to do so was easy. The rules were so stringent whatever “gray area” the creative types found was small, indeed.

But find it they did – and then they tried to push their way around it.

When they did and got caught, NASCAR’s penalties were hardly inconspicuous. They grew into near death sentences.

Fines, probations, loss of points and even suspensions all became part of the legal process – and subsequently grew.

Fines of $25,000 grew to $50,000 and then $100,000. Point losses, for the drivers and owners, numbered in the hundreds. Probations didn’t last days or months, they remained in force for the remainder of a season. Offenders, mostly crew chiefs, were suspended for six weeks or more.

As a result of all this, among other things, it’s my thinking that what occurs in the garage area at each track is probably more sanitized now than it ever has been.

I just don’t think teams want to mess around with their cars knowing that they could receive punishments that, by golly, actually have a very, very negative impact. Why tempt fate?

But this is all about technology. It’s not about behavior and conduct – a couple of other things that fall under NASCAR scrutiny.

There was a time, not long ago, when NASCAR was just as harsh on its drivers as it was how teams treated the car.

Stiff penalties were handed down for swearing and antagonistic behavior (especially on TV), confrontations and even criticism of NASCAR.

As a result, drivers went into a shell. If by being themselves they incurred NASCAR’s wrath, well, the best thing to do was to be someone else.

All these “someone else” types turned out to be the same – mostly boring, colorless and devoid of singular personalities.

Fans didn’t like that. They were always told NASCAR’s history was littered with characters. Well, where did they go?

As you well know, NASCAR responded by telling us that racing was a contact sport. It told us that it wanted the drivers to settle issues among themselves. It told us it didn’t want to police behavior unless it absolutely had to do so.

Fair enough. And in my opinion, NASCAR is doing a darn good job of keeping its nose out of things. Yes, it meets with errant drivers behind closed doors but you don’t see it drag them away by their collars, and in irons, from the track.

Just an opinion here, but if indeed Ryan Newman took a poke at Juan Pablo Montoya in the NASCAR hauler during the Darlington meeting, there was a time when the sanctioning body would have punished Newman – even though the public didn’t see him do a thing.

Of course it did no such thing this time.

Which brings us to Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick. You remember these guys – ol’ Heckle and Jeckel at Darlington?

Their post-race altercation did draw punishment from NASCAR. Both were fined $25,000 and placed on four-race probation.

It sounds like an almost meaningless judgment but it was done for one reason.

If the two had dealt solely with each other, even through physical contact, NASCAR would have done nothing.

Instead, Harvick left his car to take a shove at Busch, who was still sitting in his.

Busch took off, struck Harvick’s abandoned car, sent it across pit road and into the inside pit wall. The car missed several people and, most fortunately, did not pin anyone against the concrete.

But it could have easily done both. And therein lies the big difference.

When the actions of two drivers involve a danger to the safety and welfare of others, NASCAR has to abandon the “boys have at it” philosophy. It must act.

Given that Harvick left his car unattended to start the fray, I at first felt certain NASCAR would more severely punish him, and I thought it should.

But that would not have been fair. Both men played a role in the creation of the situation and warranted punishment.

As said the punishment is, at best, minor. But I think NASCAR did the right thing if for no other reason than it wants to convey to Busch and Harvick, and other drivers, just where it will draw the line when it comes to “boys, have at it.”

I’m not sure the next offenders, should there be any, will get off so easily.

Montoya Had Enough, So He Had At It

NASCAR’s Juan Montoya and Ryan Newman tangled twice at Richmond while Newman screamed foul. Every time a driver dumps somebody they apologize and say it wasn’t intentional. Montoya has had enough of it. His strikes back are intentional. http://www.motorsportsunplugged.com

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