Earnhardt Rigged This Roulette Wheel – Fantasy Insight Talladega 1

Dale Earnhardt, JR

Every time the NASCAR Sprint Cup circus heads to Talladega Superspeedway we hear about how this race is a crap shoot, a flip of the coin or a spin of the old roulette wheel. People make this sound so unpredictable.

Oh sure, there are big crashes that sometimes take out the top guys and let a longshot win the race. But for every longshot winner there is a solid pick. If this race was such a crap shoot or a spin of the roulette wheel how did Dale Earnhardt win ten times? How did Dale Jr win four in a row? Maybe the Earnhardt family rigged this roulette wheel.

One thing that has made this race a little more unpredictable this year is the unknown over whether the two-car push will work at all here. Earlier this season at Daytona the restrictive rules and a change to the front end of these Gen Six cars seemed to make the two-car tandem difficult to pull off for any length of time.

But this is Talladega where the transitions in the corners are not as severe. This is Talladega where the tires don’t wear as bad as Daytona. My gut feeling is that we will see pack racing until the closing laps and then we will see a few guys figure out how to make the two-car push work. But if tandem racing goes away we might see a return of Earnhardt dominance of this roulette wheel. (And since Lori Munro from Doin’ Donuts on RaceTalkRadio.com has picked Junior this week include him on your race team).

Good luck with your fantasy racing picks this week and don’t forget to send in your pick for “Whiteboard Fantasy Racing” this week for Talladega.

Send in your pick to win this week’s Cup race to dennis@racetalkradio.com for a chance to win a copy of the National Speedway Directory from SpeedwaysOnline.com.

Help Kris Martin Become NASCAR’s First Deaf RacerKris Martin was born to race!

Kris is following in his grandfather’s footsteps and is trying to race his way all the way to NASCAR. But Kris was born profoundly Deaf. Technology helps Kris hear his Crew Chief and Spotter so he can race safely but sponsors are not willing to take a chance on him…yet. Your help in funding his racing this season can help Kris show sponsors he will be an excellent representative for them all the way to NASCAR. I am working with Kris Martin Racing and his family to help them make this dream come true.

http://igg.me/at/krismartinracing/x/2900200

 Weather Report

Mostly Cloudy with a threat of showers, high temp in the upper 60s

If you have a question about Fantasy Racing send it to dennis@racetalkradio.com and get it answered next week.

 NASCAR by the Numbers

Using a proprietary race analysis technique we take the fans inside the numbers every week. DMIC’s rating system has been in use since 2002 and has proven to pick the contenders from the pretenders!

Consistency is King (Last Five Races)

Driver

Last 5

J Johnson

93

M Kenseth

92

C Edwards

91

K Kahne

91

R Smith

90

K Harvick

90

C Bowyer

89

A Almirola

89

Ky Busch

88

J Logano

87

 Horses for Courses (Track Rating)

Matt Kenseth

 

Driver

Course

C Bowyer

93

G Biffle

90

B Keselowski

90

M Kenseth

86

J Burton

86

J Gordon

86

M Truex

86

K Harvick

85

K Kahne

84

J Johnson

84

 Type Casting (Track Type Factor)

Driver

Type

M Kenseth

92

G Biffle

92

D Earnhardt Jr

90

B Keselowski

90

J Burton

89

R Newman

86

R Stenhouse Jr

86

Ky Busch

85

B Labonte

84

C Bowyer

84

Power Rating (240 Minimum to Qualify as Contender)

Driver

Power

M Kenseth

271

G Biffle

268

C Bowyer

267

B Keselowski

265

J Burton

259

K Kahne

259

D Earnhardt Jr

257

K Harvick

256

J Johnson

255

Ky Busch

255

J Gordon

254

P Menard

253

M Truex

253

R Smith

252

C Edwards

251

A Almirola

251

J Logano

251

R Newman

247

T Bayne

247

T Stewart

242

M Waltrip

240

R Stenhouse Jr

240

J McMurray

238

D Ragan

237

T Kvapil

236

D Reutimann

236

B Labonte

235

M Ambrose

234

D Gilliland

233

C Mears

231

Ku Busch

229

D Blaney

228

JP Montoya

226

D Patrick

225

D Stremme

213

DMIC’s Fantasy Picks presented by Speedwaysonline.com

Each week we will take you beyond the numbers to handicap the field from top to bottom to help your Fantasy Racing team succeed. You are also invited to join Lori Munro and I on “White Board Fantasy Racing” every Monday night on “Doin’ Donuts” at 8pm ET on RaceTalkRadio.com. Win fun prizes by picking just the race winners in our unique format. Send your picks to info@racetalkradio.com to enter.

Top Pick (Last Week Finished 2nd)

Kevin Harvick

Clint Bowyer- Much better luck at Dega than Daytona

(12 to 1 Odds)

 Best Long Shot (Odds of 20-1 or More) (Last Week Finished 38th)         

Jeff Burton- RCR factor and Burton is smart plate racer

(40 to 1 Odds)

Top Dogs (Group A in Yahoo) (Last Week Finished 12th)      

Kevin Harvick- Love those RCR cars here

(12 to 1 Odds)

Second Class (Group B in Yahoo) (Last Week Won Pole and Finished 24th)      

Dale Earnhardt Jr- If pack racing is back this could be Dale’s race to lose

(12 to 1 Odds)

Middle Packer (Group C in Yahoo) (Last Week Finished 16th)

Michael Waltrip- Came so close to winning here last season

(40 to 1 Odds)

Crazy 8s for Talladega

Each week Lori Munro and Dennis Michelsen battle in the most unique racing game around! We pick one driver each from each 8 driver group using the current points’ standings. Our picks can help you round out your fantasy racing lineup!

Lori won 3-2 in week 9 and leads the game 7-2 for the year

Group 1: Lori picks Dale Earnhardt Jr and Dennis picks Clint Bowyer

Group 2: Dennis picks Kevin Harvick and Lori picks Matt Kenseth

Group 3: Lori picks Tony Stewart and Dennis picks Jeff Burton

Group 4: Dennis picks Denny Hamlin and Lori picks Danica Patrick

Group 5: Lori picks Michael Waltrip and Dennis picks Trevor Bayne

Do you have what it takes to handicap the races? Join Lori and Dennis every week and play in the Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Series! Send your pick for the Cup race to info@racetalkradio.com to enter. Weekly prize given away! 

WWE? The MMA Would Have Been Better Choice For Daytona


WWE champion John Cena has been named the Honorary Starter for the Daytona 500.

 

The announcement this week that the Honorary Starter of the 2012 Daytona 500 would be WWE Star John Cena surprised me.

I have nothing against the man or the WWE, but I feel NASCAR and, specifically, Daytona tapped the wrong sport for this gig.

In 2011 the UFC inked a lucrative deal to show Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) matches on Fox from its premiere organization. This was an incredibly big move on Fox’s part and proved to many that MMA was – and is – a legitimate sport with rules, regulations, and now a primetime spot on network television.

Choosing a MMA star to be Honorary Starter of “The Great American Race” – that is shown on Fox – would have made infinite more sense to me. What better way to gain crossover followers in that coveted 18-49 year old age bracket?

NASCAR fans and MMA fans may not appear to have anything in common, but I would argue their sports share a similar history.

Before NASCAR was formed there were several “stock car associations” that tried to be legitimate, get the best racers, and make the most money. Not until Bill France and a host of other big names sat down to organize stock car racing into one entity – NASCAR – did the phenomenon we know today come to be.

MMA has grown from many segments. Like NASCAR, a variety of different organizations exist, all vying for legitimacy, fandom, and the almighty sponsorship dollars. One man, Dana White, has harnessed the sport into one gigantic powerhouse.

The other levels of MMA still exist, are viable, and are fighting for their audiences, but the bottom line is, MMA has arrived and Dana White’s UFC is the pinnacle.

It seems only logical to me to unite and exploit Fox’s relationship with Dana White and UFC with NASCAR. MMA would get a wider national platform to be introduced and validated and NASCAR would show their modernity.

Kevin Harvick recently attended the UFC on Fox 2 event in Chicago and stayed visible for interviews. His main purpose was to plug the Daytona 500 that Fox is covering on Feb. 26, but Harvick was also able to give his opinions of the night’s matches. He seems to be somewhat of a fan.

The author thinks Daytona should have selected someone from MMA to be Honorary Starter. That might be a more suitable match for NASCAR's more volatile personalities, like Kevin Harvick.

WWE is a great entertainment source and I’m sure NASCAR is thrilled with the connection. My opinion, however, would have been to tap the far more logical, broader horizons that MMA offers.

White is a masterful attention grabber. He is famous (infamous) for the bonuses he offers his fighters, the strong opinions he wields tyrannically, and his empirical control of the UFC.

Brian France, coming from the lineage he does, would certainly feel comfortable with that kind of personality. Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, and Harvick, all fiery personalities, could live vicariously through the fighters in the UFC.

I can only lead these 800 horses to White’s water, I can’t make them drink.

What do you think, fans, was the WWE the right organization to pick the Honorary Starter of the Daytona 500 or would White’s UFC been the better choice?

Don’t Hand The Chase To Johnson Just Yet


No one in this Sprint Cup Chase is going to let Jimmie Johnson walk off with a sixth title…he’ll have to run them over. Tony Stewart is fighting as hard as ever while Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick stay on top. Don’t count young Brad Keselowski out either.

For Kyle Busch It’s The Same Old Chase – Unfortunately

Busch

Kyle Busch started the Chase tied for No. 1 in the points standings. But as he did last year, he's stumbled in the first four races and is now ranked eighth, 20 points back. He can still win the title, but it won't be easy.

CONCORD, N.C. – Kyle Busch has been in this position before. I’m thinking he wishes he wasn’t.

Once more he’s begun NASCAR’s Chase for the Sprint Cup in an excellent position to win his first career championship. And, once more, he’s lost the edge and now has to claw his way back into contention.

The 26-year-old driver for Joe Gibbs Racing started the Chase tied with Kevin Harvick for first place in the point standings.

Both drivers benefited from the way the 12-car field was re-seeded. It provided 10 bonus points for each victory, thus Busch and Harvick were propelled to No. 1 with four wins each, prior to the start of the Chase at Chicago.

By the way, each had won more races than any other competitor.

Busch has proven he has no difficulty winning races. In a Cup career that spans eight seasons, Busch has made 252 starts and won 23 times. He also has 79 top-five finishes and 120 among the top 10.

He also has a record 51 Nationwide Series victories and was that circuit’s champion in 2009.

And he has 30 wins on the Craftsman Truck Series.

Busch has established a well-deserved reputation as a driver who can win in just about everything he drives.

But when it comes to a Cup championship, it appears he just can’t win at the right time. Or perhaps it’s more accurate to say he can’t avoid problems in the Chase – and they usually strike fast.

This year, Busch quickly fell out of his No. 1 slot. He finished 22nd in the Chase-opening race at Chicago. He was 11th at New Hampshire, sixth at Dover – his only top-10 finish in the Chase – and 11th again at Kansas.

Busch’s lack of consistency has put him eighth in points, 20 behind leader Carl Edwards – who has been a model of consistency, by the way.

The way Busch has started the Chase is nothing new for him. He did virtually the same thing last year and wound up eighth in the final rankings.

Asked how frustrating it was to struggle after being the top seed in the Chase for the second time, Busch said:

It’s not the second time, it’s every time.”
It certainly seems that way.

Trust me,” said Busch, whose highest finish in points was fifth in 2007, “if I knew I’d love to fix it. I have no idea.

You know, in years past we may have had wrecks or mechanical failures or something in that respect. This year it’s not anything in particular, it’s just that we haven’t been finishing where we’ve been running.”

Indeed, Busch’s problems aren’t as dramatic as wrecks or mechanical maladies. They are much more subtle – yet just as damaging.

We had a fuel issue at Chicago,” Busch said. “At Loudon, I wasn’t the best and the car wasn’t the best. We kinda missed it on the last run at Dover and at Kansas we kind of got back in traffic a little bit when we came in for two tires and some other guys stayed out because they thought they could make it the rest of the way.

You know, we definitely lost a lot of points at Chicago. We gave up a couple of points at Dover and a few points at Kansas. If we could have some of those points back, we’d be a lot closer.”

Of course, Busch realizes he’s not going to get any points back.

A lot of other guys probably say the same thing,” he said. “It’s all relative. It’s just a matter of where we are right now.”

Busch is satisfied with other facets of the Gibbs team performance. For example, there are no issues with the pit crew.

Well, we did have some pit stop issues at Chicago, but we haven’t had any in the last few races,” Busch said. “The guys have really worked hard and dug in deep and they’ve been able to pump out some pretty good pit stops lately. So we’ve been fine the last three races.”

It goes without saying that Busch is going to have to raise his performance level over the last six races of the Chase if he’s going to have any shot at the title.

And it would help a bit if some of the guys ahead of him in the standings would experience some of the problems he has.

I’d love to have a perfect day for the next few weeks and all of a sudden be the one everyone is worried about,” Busch said. “We haven’t had that perfect day yet.

It’s the little things that can take you out of the running. It’s been every single season I’ve been in the Chase that this stuff has happened. It’s just that we are still able to fight back and come back from where we are. Years past, we would have been knocked out by now.

At least we still have a fighting shot. We could have that perfect day at Charlotte. We’ll play it one week at a time.”

New Chase Format Works But The Title Will Be Won The Old Way

NASCAR CEO Brian France is very pleased with how the Chase is unfolding and he believes that the changes the sanctioning body made to its “playoff” system have greatly improved it.

Given what’s happened so far in the 10-race format, it’s hard to argue with him.

“Obviously I’m not sure we can be any more pleased with how the Chase is unfolding,” France said. “Frankly, we’re pleased with how the season has unfolded, the level of competition and the closeness in the Chase.”

Indeed the Chase has, to date, produced the type of drama for which it was created and I have to agree that the tweaks NASCAR made in the off-season have played role.

“The ‘wildcard’ is one,” France said of the modifications, “And streamlining and simplifying the points system is another that have made it easier for people to understand how you qualify. And they have added some drama.

“It’s done all of that and if you look back, at the time, those moves were considered small ones. But they have actually had a big impact and that’s terrific.”

Again, it’s hard to disagree.

However, it doesn’t matter, really, under which system NASCAR uses, or has used, to determine its champion. Whether it was with the old points format – with the absence of a Chase altogether – the “old” Chase or today’s modified one, how a title is ultimately won is always based on performance.

A champion is the driver who runs consistently well on the track and avoids problems. If he does have them he and his team, together, routinely overcome them.

Sounds simple, but it’s certainly not that easy to achieve. Any competitor will tell you that.

The drama that is a big part of this year’s version of the Chase has been created by the fact that there are currently eight drivers within 20 points of one another with six races remaining.

The top five in points are separated by a mere 12 points and the drivers who rank among the top three are separated by a margin of just four points.

As for the top two, Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick, respectively, a single point splits them.

This excruciatingly close championship scenario was partly created by the modifications NASCAR made to the Chase.

But, more so, it exists because all the drivers and teams involved have piled up consistently high finishes and surmounted occasional problems.

In his a quest for a sixth-straight championship, Jimmie Johnson’s efforts in the Chase have been well documented. He stumbled out of the gate, especially at New Hampshire, where he finished 18th, but overcame with finishes of second and first in the last two races to rise from 10th to third in points, four in arrears.

That’s an obvious combination of surpassing bad fortune and consistent performance.

But there are a few more pronounced examples of this.

Edwards, the man many have said would knock Johnson of his pedestal – that’s been said of him for the last three seasons – has been the most consistent driver in the Chase.

His worst finish in four races has been eighth. All the others were in the top five. That kind of performance week after week will put make any driver a serious championship contender.

But Edwards and his Roush Fenway Racing team have overcome, also. This was especially true at Kansas. If they hadn’t done so in the Hollywood Casino 400 they certainly would not be No. 1 by any means.

As soon as the Kansas race started, Edwards began dropping back into the pack in a car that slid all over the track. In just 47 of 267 laps he was in 20th place and fighting to keep from losing a lap.

He pitted for a lengthy period of time during the second caution period, restarted 25th and fell a lap down to Johnson by lap 159.

His crew constantly worked on his car thereafter. Edwards regained the lead lap with a free pass on lap 206 and moved forward from there. He was 13th as the race wound down and, after the green-white-checkered finish, he had climbed all the way to fifth place.

“I can’t believe we finished fifth,” Edwards said. “It feels like we won the race. This is the most we’ve ever done with a car that wasn’t capable of winning the race so I’m proud of my guys who made good adjustments.”

Like Johnson, Edwards and his team serve as a perfect example of what it takes to earn a title.

That can also be said of Harvick and his Richard Childress Racing outfit.

Harvick’s Chase record so far isn’t as good as Edwards’, but it’s good enough. He has finished outside the top 10 only once. Among his top-five runs is a second place at Chicago, which pushed him from second in points – his rank when the “playoffs” began – to first.

But he and his team have also overcome adversity, again at Kansas.

Harvick and his team had an ill-handling Chevrolet at the start of the race and worked hard to improve it. They did enough to earn a sixth-place finish, one spot behind Edwards.

“It was a long day to say the least,” Harvick said. “Everyone on the team kept adjusting and nothing seemed to work right as far as the adjustments were going.

“But we kept swinging at it. On the next to last pit stop we put four tires on and I knew we were going to be close to cutoff line of when the other guys would pit.

“The No. 22 (Kurt Busch) and I stayed out and everybody behind us pitted. All in all, it was a great save for everybody on the team.”

A glance at the Chase records of almost all the leading contenders clearly indicates they have been consistent and have prevailed over adversity.

Brad Keselowski, for example, started the Chase as a “wildcard” entry and was 11th in points. He’s now fourth and only 11 back, due largely to three top-six runs in four races. He earned sixth place at Kansas on a rebound from a mediocre 20th-place finish at Dover a week earlier.

Yes, the revamped Chase has provided us with plenty of drama and most likely will continue to do so. France should indeed be pleased.

But in the end nothing will change. As it always has been, the driver who becomes champion will have done so by consistency of performance and the ability to overcome misfortune.

We’ve seen enough evidence of that already.

Stewart’s Timing Perfect In First Chase Race

Making the right moves involves timing. And it appears Tony Stewart knows something about timing. At least, he showed that on Monday on the race track.

Disappointed and frustrated for most of the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup season in a fruitless search for victory, Stewart finally won his first race of the year in the Geico 400 at Chicagoland Speedway.

The race was the first of 10 in the Chase and Stewart’s victory propelled him to second place in the point standings, just seven points behind new leader Kevin Harvick.

Since Stewart came into the Chicagoland race ninth in points – after sweating out several weeks of doubt that he would make it at all – finishing first was indeed a good move.

Stewart’s late-race strategy also proved to be a good move. The Geico 400 was yet another fuel mileage race. As usual, most of the competitors were doing their best to save gas, but many of them ran out anyway.

On the last lap, several of the lead-lap cars bailed, the victims of empty gas tanks. Had they been able to run the distance the final standings would have looked much different.

Stewart, however, followed his preservation strategy perfectly – another good move – and it paid off handsomely.

“You couldn’t pick a better weekend to get that first win of the year than here at Chicago, obviously,” said Stewart, who has now won at least one race in each of the last 13 seasons, his entire Cup career. “We felt like there were three or four opportunities earlier in the year that we let some get away from us.  But we have struggled.

“We’ve had a miserable year. But the last three weeks have really started coming into it. We had a really good run in Atlanta. Good solid run last week at Richmond.

“Then to come out this weekend, I don’t think Darian (Grubb, crew chief), or either one of us, thought that we had as good a car as we needed to win today. But it didn’t take long in the race to figure out that we were pretty solid.

“It was just getting the track position.”

Stewart got that position. Afterward it was a matter of saving fuel.

The final scenario was set up on lap 213, when a caution period began after debris was found on the track. The leaders pitted. Martin Truex Jr. stayed out on the track and was in first place when the race restarted.

Matt Kenseth was second and Stewart third.

Ten laps later Kenseth passed Truex Jr. to take the lead and 10 laps after that, Stewart moved into first place after dueling with Kenseth.

Truex Jr. pitted on lap 254 with just 13 laps left in the race. From that point on it was obvious none of the leaders was going to pit. The plan was to finish the distance and in some cases, it would be a huge gamble, as some crew chiefs felt their drivers would come up as much as three laps short.

“At the end you hate to have to play the fuel mileage game,” Stewart said. “But that’s just the way the caution came out. And we came in and got fuel and Darian told me we had to save a lap’s worth of fuel.

“So we had a whole run to do it. But we kept a lot of pressure on Matt and finally got by him and once we got out to a second and a half, two-second lead we could start backing off the pace and start saving fuel.

“And I felt like I’d saved enough to get us to the end. But we came off of Turn 2 after we got the checkered and the fuel pressure was down to two pounds, and it stayed there until just shortly after we picked up the checkered flag at the flag stand. We didn’t do any wild burnout or anything like that and ran out before we ever got on pit road.

“So we were closer than I wanted to be. But we didn’t have anything to lose. Where we’re at in The Chase right now, we had to press.”

Virtually everyone in the Chase still in contention for a top-10 finish pressed, too – it’s expected of them in the “playoffs.”

But it didn’t pay off all around. On the last few laps, especially the last, so many cars turned toward pit road or fell off the pace it looked like a fleet of commuters on the freeway backed up at an exit ramp.

Among those who ran out of gas were five-time champion Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin and Kenseth.

Newman finished eighth, Johnson 10th and Kenseth 21st. All are championship contenders.

Their misfortune helped other competitors gain position at race’s end. Harvick, last week’s winner at Richmond, moved into second place.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., who had a good run most of the day, wound up in third place. Carl Edwards moved up to fourth and Brad Keselowski was fifth.

Earnhardt Jr., another driver concerned about making the Chase, soared from 10th in points to fifth, one position behind Kurt Busch. Edwards moved from fifth to third and Keselowski took a hike from 11th place as a “wildcard” entry to sixth.

Seventh through 12th in points are, in order, Newman, Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and .

The Geico 400 certainly made an impact on the Chase. For some drivers, it was bad and for others, very good.

For Stewart it was perfect.

But it must be noted, again, that the race was the first of 10 that will determine the champion.

There is a long way to go. And a lot can happen.

The Status Of The Chase Field And Other Observations

Offering a few observations as the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit readies for this weekend’s race, the 21st of the season, at Pocono Raceway.

 

** Counting Pocono, there are six races remaining until the Chase begins after the Richmond event on Sept. 10. The final list of the 12 eligible drivers is, of course, yet to be determined.

But we have plenty of evidence to suggest several drivers don’t have a thing to worry about, some have concerns and others, well, it will be wait until next year.

Not to bore you, but the 12 drivers who make up this year’s Chase field will be the top 10 in points after Richmond and two “wildcard” selections with the most wins who rank between 11th and 20th in points.

Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson, who has won five consecutive championships and is pretty much in everyone’s crosshairs, are first and second in points and unless they both decide to join a monastery, they have clear sailing ahead.

It’s pretty much the same for Kevin Harvick, who is third in points, and Kyle Busch, who stands fourth. Each has three victories this year, more than any other driver so far, and that is going to be more than enough to give them a free pass to the Chase.

Fifth place in points belongs to Matt Kenseth, who has won twice this year, and Jeff Gordon, two spots behind Kenseth, also has two victories.

Neither one of them is losing sleep – they’re in.

Really, it doesn’t take a lot of calculating to figure out that any among the top 10 in points with multiple wins has clear sailing.

Even if they fall out of the top 10, at this point the drivers with two or more victories have paid-up Chase insurance.

Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman also reside among the top 10 with a difference: Each has only a single victory to date.

It’s most likely going to be good enough but it certainly can’t be said they’re on cruise control like the others. If either enters a competitive slump – which can happen in six races – and drops out of the top 10, the situation might become dicey.

It’s definitely dicey for Dale Earnhardt Jr., who ranks 10th in points and is one of two drivers among the top 10 who hasn’t won.

There was a time Earnhardt Jr. was comfortable in the standings and seemed well on his way to making the Chase for the first time since 2008.

But he hasn’t finished among the top 10 in the last six races – proof such a slump CAN happen – and thus he’s left with three choices.

He holds his position over the next six races, improves it or gains a measure of security with a victory – which, by itself, is no guarantee.

The situation is similar for Tony Stewart. He’s ninth in points and does not have a victory. He’s three points ahead of Earnhardt Jr. and nine behind teammate Newman.

Like Earnhardt Jr., he can ill afford another drop in points. Either he holds it, moves up or earns that elusive first victory.

Being the competitor he is, Stewart most likely isn’t thinking about points. He wants to win – period.

Denny Hamlin is 11th in points with one victory and leads the pack of top-10 “outsiders,” at least for now. It’s not a secure position. But then, Hamlin should be considered a favorite at Pocono, where he has won four times since 2006.

Paul Menard, who won at Indy for his first career victory, is, at 14th, is the second driver outside the top 10 with a victory. David Ragan, ranked 16th, is the third and last.

However, there’s a sizable handful of drivers among the top 20 who haven’t won yet and probably should have.

It would seem the final field for the Chase is very much up in the air as we enter the final six races before it begins.

The suggestion here is to be watchful of Stewart, Earnhardt Jr., Hamlin, Menard and Ragan. I don’t know for sure, of course, but at least one of them is going to be disappointed.

 

** I can’t say I’m overly surprised that Edwards signed a new multi-year agreement to drive for Roush Fenway Racing, with which he’s been associated since 2004, his entire Sprint Cup career.

I freely admit that, given the amounts of money he was supposedly offered by Joe Gibbs Racing via rumors, I wouldn’t have been startled if he had moved on, either.

Edwards, by the way, never gave us a whiff about making a move and Gibbs was equally silent.

Silence fuels rumors. Lack of denial means one thing – where there is smoke ….

Edwards said he decided to stay because of the opportunity team owner Jack Roush provided him and that he has all the resources he needs to win. He added that he’s leading the points and is in a great position for the Chase.

With Roush Fenway Edwards indeed has all it takes to become a champion. He should have been one already with his nine victories in 2008, the year he finished second in the final standings.

He’s now in the prime position to knock Johnson off the champion’s pedestal – not that it will happen, of course – but the fact he’s where he is has to count for a lot as far as Roush Fenway, and Ford, are concerned.

Roush hasn’t won a title since 2004, the second year of what is now the Chase, nor has Ford, which has had to stand by and watch Chevrolet dominate.

I’m guessing that might well be why Ford tossed in its own bucks to keep Edwards in the fold.

I wouldn’t be surprised if money figured into all of this, of course, but it’s not always the final answer. Team stability, resources and proven competitive certainty count for a great deal. Edwards has that.

No driver can be certain he can still find it all somewhere else – even if evidence suggests it is all there, as it does for Gibbs.

Maybe, among other ones, Edwards reached that conclusion. If so, in one man’s opinion, it very likely played a role in his final decision.

 

** The liquidation sale for the NASCAR Café in Las Vegas began a couple of days ago. Fans were able to buy anything from helmets, uniforms, prints and photos to bar equipment.

At one time there were NASCAR Cafes in multiple locations, including Myrtle Beach, Nashville and Orlando in addition to Vegas. As far as I know, the café in Vegas was the last one standing.

They were created during NASCAR’s tidal wave of popularity in the late ‘90s. The sanctioning body seized the opportunity to put its name on everything from restaurants to Speedparks, arcades with simulators, games, souvenir shops, its own library of books (including romance novels) and a host of other things.

It all seemed to be overkill and that was pretty much proven after NASCAR’s popularity flat-lined.

Besides, theme restaurants, for the most part, have withered on the vine. Planet Hollywood is a good example.

As an aside, the NASCAR Hall of Fame isn’t drawing the attendance the Charlotte tourism folks anticipated.

But don’t look for any liquidation sale any time soon – or ever, for that matter.

The Points System Has Provided Intrigue, With More To Come

Maybe I’m wrong and you may disagree, but if nothing else, NASCAR’S new points system has, to date, made the season intriguing.

As I understand it, the modified system awards a winner 43 points. He gets three more points for winning and another for leading a lap, which means a minimum of 47 laps.

If the winner leads the most laps that means another bonus point. The total is now 48, the most any driver can earn in a single race.

The most points the second-place finisher can get is 44 points, 42 for second, one for leading and one for leading the most laps.

Putting bonus points aside – NASCAR wanted to maintain the race winner reward – the system is pretty basic. There’s only a one-point difference between each position, from the base of 43 for first place to just one for last place.

The unique change NASCAR made for this season, in addition to rewarding consistency of performance, was to allow the top 10 after 26 races to qualify for the chase. Spots 11 and 12 would go to the drivers who have compiled the most victories and rank among the top 20.

OK, that’s enough. I’ve dwelled long enough on something you already know.

But what I find interesting about the new points system is that it has kept things fairly undecided as we enter the final six races before the Chase.

While there are a few drivers who seem safe when it comes to the Chase, there are others whose status is very much uncertain.

And Carl Edwards, the points leader, by no means has a lock on the top spot. He’s just seven points ahead of five-time champion Jimmie Johnson.

Among the top 10 every driver except one has a victory. Kevin Harvick, fourth in points and eight behind Edwards, has three victories, as does Kyle Busch, who is fifth in points, 13 in arrears.

Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon have two wins each – and are ranked sixth and seventh in points, respectively.

I would think all four drivers are pretty much guaranteed spots in the Chase.

I’d say the same for Edwards, Johnson, Kurt Busch (third in points), Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin, who each have a victory and are among the top 10.

OK, here’s where the situation becomes a bit tense for some drivers.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ranks ninth in points largely because he’s been in a competitive swoon. He was once as high as third in the standings.

But he does not have a victory. Which means two things if he wants to make the Chase: He has to hang on to the top 10 over the next six races, or, at the very least, earn a victory, something he hasn’t done since 2008.

Tony Stewart faces a similar situation. He’s tied with Hamlin for 10th in points, but unlike Hamlin, he doesn’t have a victory.

So if the Chase started immediately, Hamlin is in and Stewart is out.

But it doesn’t start immediately so Stewart has a chance to secure his place. Most likely he would prefer to do it with a victory. He hasn’t had a winless season in a career that dates back to 1999.

Other notables, such as Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne and Greg Biffle, pretty much have to rely on winning to make the Chase.

Bowyer is 12th in points, Kahne 14th and Biffle 15th. They are 110 points or more behind the leader. Bowyer is 28 points out of 10th place. He can certainly make up the difference but the odds are quickly stacking against him.

It’s the same for Kahne and Biffle, who are each 47 points out of the hunt.

For these three guys, a victory would be the tonic. The last time Bowyer went winless happened in 2009. He won two races last year.

Kahne has had two consecutive winless seasons. Between 2003-10, Biffle had only one year without a victory, 2009.

I don’t think there’s much doubt any of them can win this year. The question is can they do it in time to help them make the Chase?

They are not alone. It’s going to take a win for several others who rank 11-20th in points to make NASCAR’s “playoff.”

They include A.J. Allmendinger, Juan Pablo Montoya, Joey Logano, Paul Menard and Mark Martin.

Fact is there’s only one driver out of the top 10 who is assured a position in the Chase – for the time being, anyway.

That’s David Ragan, who won at Daytona on July 2 to earn the first victory of his career. He’s presently 13th in points.

He’s 46 points out of 10th place. That’s not insurmountable, just as it is for Bowyer, Kahne and Biffle, and I’m sure that, like the others, gaining positions is what he’d like to do.

But he’s the only one with the luxury of a victory.

As it stands right now, the only other driver who has a shot at the Chase is Brad Keselowski. He has a victory but, in 23rd place, ranks out of the top 20.

He’s going to have to scrap his way in. He’s 25 points behind 20th-place Martin, again certainly not an insurmountable margin. He has six races to do it.

The next half-dozen races are worthy of our attention. For some drivers it’s obviously going to take victory to make all the difference.

Can they win? Certainly. The 2011 season has already produced 13 different winners, including three who won for the first time.

Since NASCAR’s modern era began in 1972, the all-time record for most winners in a single season is 19 and the record for most first-time winners was five twice, in 2001 and 2002.

We’re on a pace to have 25 winners this year, including six who won for this first time in their careers.

I don’t know if that will happen, but the point is this season’s variety of winners would indicate that anything could happen over the next six events – and thus alter the starting field for the Chase.

It Took A While, But Kentucky Is Now Full-Bore NASCAR

When Kentucky Speedway stages its inaugural Sprint Cup race this weekend it will mark the beginning of its new association with the highest level of stock car racing.

The Commonwealth of Kentucky will, at long last, take its place as part of the nation’s most popular form of motorsports and the speedway will be a welcome new venue – which many think it should have long since been.

Even though NASCAR was born in the Southeast and for years flourished there, as hard at it might be to believe, Kentucky wasn’t part of it. The state didn’t take its place alongside Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia and the Carolinas.

When NASCAR began to expand, tracks located in such unlikely places as Chicago, Kansas City, Las Vegas, New Hampshire, Phoenix, Sonoma and Watkins Glen came on board while Kentucky remained absent.

But some enterprising people refused to stand idly by. In 2001, Kentucky Speedway, a handsome 1.5-mile track built in Sparta (30 miles from Cincinnati) staged its first NASCAR event.

It was a Nationwide Series race won by Kevin Harvick. The track has been part of the Nationwide tour ever since but it has always sought to move up to NASCAR’s elite circuit.

Now it has done so. But for so long Kentucky and NASCAR were never partners when it seemed, logically, they should have been.

Looking back into NASCAR’s record books, until this weekend, there was only one major race held in Kentucky since the sanctioning body was formed in 1947. And by “major” it is meant an event held on the Grand National circuit that evolved into today’s Sprint Cup tour.

It was held at Corbin Speedway, a half-mile dirt track located in Corbin, Ky., on Aug. 29, 1954. The race was a 200-lapper, or 100 miles.

It was put on the schedule during a time when Bill France, Sr., NASCAR’s founder, was staging races just about anytime and anywhere he could, coast-to-coast.

France was anxious to have his sport of professional stock car racing somehow find the attention of, and an eventual foothold with, the American public.

The Corbin event was one of 37 held in 1954. In later years the schedule for the Grand National circuit would sometimes consist of 50 races or more.

Lee Petty drove his Chrysler to victory in Kentucky in ’54 to earn one of his seven victories of the season. He went on to compete in 34 races and, at age 40, win the first of his three Grand National championships.

Interestingly, the driver who finished second, and was the only other one to complete all 200 laps, was Hershel McGriff in an Oldsmobile. He was 27 years old and won four races in ’54, his best Grand National season.

McGriff is a remarkable athlete who has raced over the course of six decades. At age 83, he has already competed in two NASCAR K&N Pro Series West races this year.

Other NASCAR notables who were part of the 21-car field in Corbin included Buck Baker, Herb Thomas, Marvin Panch and Jim Paschal.

After 1954, Kentucky was never again a part of NASCAR’s top circuit – at least through research done here. If anyone can show otherwise please enlighten us all.

When it comes to Kentucky, remember all of this is about NASCAR and its top circuit. It has nothing to do with motorsports overall in the Bluegrass State, which certainly has had its share of drivers, tracks and fans over the years.

And Kentucky has never needed NASCAR to take the podium in the sports world. When it comes to thoroughbred horse racing, it stands head and shoulders above all other states.

It’s fair to say that the Kentucky Derby, in Louisville, is one of the world’s major sporting events and receives perhaps even more international attention than the Daytona 500.

In 1972, Kentucky began its slowly forged link with NASCAR through the ambition, achievements and personality of a single driver.

This is an opinion shared by a multitude of motorsports historians and journalists.

Darrell Waltrip, from Owensboro, Ky., broke into NASCAR in ’72. I always have thought he was the right man for the sport at the right time.

While NASCAR did receive a huge boost from the financial participation of R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. and its Winston brand of cigarettes, that created the Winston Cup circuit, it was devoid of personalities that could lure, and even polarize, fans new and old.

Waltrip was the man who did so. With long hair and sideburns, a sense of humor, a brash attitude and the gift of gab, he made it clear he was going to beat the big boys.

In an upstart operation with his own car and noted crew chief Jake Elder few paid Waltrip particular notice – at first. That changed when he began to compete regularly with the stars of the day.

It also changed when fans began to listen to what Waltrip had to say and either approved or disapproved. Either way he drew attention.

The media began to court the “mouthy” kid from Tennessee – Waltrip had moved to Franklin, Tenn., so he could race regularly at Nashville Fairgrounds Speedway.

The Kentucky native had a way with the press. He was opinionated, of course, but he was also witty and very open. He knew what he was doing.

He didn’t mind telling one writer about his misadventures in Owensboro. One of them was his ultimate conviction for something called “attempted drag racing,” which might not have happened if a buddy, who, while on the stand, hadn’t been forcefully told the punishments for perjury.

Scared, he turned on Waltrip, who subsequently spent a year riding around Owensboro in a moped.

While he kept on talking, Waltrip kept racing competitively and finally won his first career Winston Cup event at, of course, Nashville, on May 10, 1975. It took him 50 races.

“I wish I could have won at some track other than the one where I grew up,” Waltrip said. “But it’s good to finally win, though.”

Waltrip won again in ’75, at Richmond. This time it was with DiGard Racing Co., which had hired him to replace Donnie Allison.

It was with DiGard that Waltrip began his surge to superstardom, which was later intensified by his long association with Junior Johnson & Associates.

Kentucky racing fans gleefully and appreciatively went along with the ride. After all, Waltrip was one of the best in NASCAR and a Kentuckian to boot.

Kentucky’s representation in NASCAR grew. In time NASCAR had a small army of Owensboro competitors.

It included Waltrip’s brother Michael, of course, along with the Green siblings – David, Jeff and Mark. Also a member was Jeremy Mayfield.

Their presence certainly solidified Kentucky’s position in NASCAR.

But nothing will do so better than what will happen on what should be a more than well-attended weekend. It was a long time coming for several reasons, but Kentucky and the speedway are now welcome parts of NASCAR’s highest level.

Hamlin Does What We Thought He Would Do – At Last

A smattering of observations after the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 (now that’s a helluva name) at Michigan International Speedway.

** Think is more than fair to say that most of us figured Denny Hamlin would have won a race by now – especially Hamlin.

After all, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver won eight races and nearly captured the Sprint Cup championship last year. As the season began, he was cast in the role as a driver who might end Jimmie Johnson’s five-year reign as champ.

Instead, Hamlin was winless entering the Michigan race and overcame a rough start to rise to 12th in points.

Hamlin was frustrated by his performance so far this season and he said so. But he also felt that Gibbs’ recent performances were evidence the team was on the verge of victory.

“In the last six or seven weeks, we’ve been as good as anyone,” Hamlin said. “Feels good to get a win after sneaking up on everyone.”

It seemed he sneaked up, somewhat, on the field at Michigan. His crew worked on his Toyota all day and, with some key adjustments, he worked his way to the front and took the lead on pit road with just eight laps left in the race.

After his team got his car tightened up, Hamlin made his way forward and emerged in second place after he pitted during a caution on lap 162.

Carl Edwards took the lead on the restart and stayed there, with Hamlin in tow, for the next 29 laps.

When Dale Earnhardt Jr. clipped the wall on lap 191, which brought out a caution flag with just eight laps remaining, Hamlin won the race off pit road.

He held off Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch, who finished second and third, on the restarts.

With his first victory of the season, Hamlin rose three positions in points, to ninth. He’s also firmly in contention for one of the two Chase “wildcard” positions should he not finish among the top 10 in points following Richmond in September.

“It’s so tough because you know you belong in the top-10 and you deserve to have a Chase spot, but the results don’t show for it,” Hamlin said. “So, for us, it’s good to kind of get over this hump, get our first win of the season and hopefully it’s the first of many.

“You have to pay attention to the points. If you’re not points racing at this point you’re not paying attention to the obvious, because with this new format you either got to win or you’ve got to be inside that top-10.”

The Michigan finish was Hamlin’s sixth among the top 10 this season. It was also his second consecutive victory in the spring race and his seventh top-10 finish in 10 races at the track.

Hamlin gave credit where it was due – to his team.

“Mike (Ford, crew chief) just kept working on this car,” Hamlin said. “At times we had a 10th-place car and at times we had the best car. We just didn’t get it all put together until right there at the end.

“I just can’t thank this whole team enough. Awesome pit stops – they are the ones that got me out in front on that last restart and that’s what we needed to win.”

Carl Edwards remains first in points with his fifth-place run and is now 20 points of Kevin Harvick, who finished 14th.

Earnhardt Jr. remains third in points despite a 21st-place finish following a late-race altercation with teammate Mark Martin. The finish was Earnhardt Jr.’s first outside the top 20 this year

Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson, a pre-race favorite, lasted only a handful of laps before he spun and broke the sway bar on his Chevrolet.

The Hendrick Motorsports team repaired the car but there just weren’t enough cautions for him to make up the lost ground. His 27th-place finish pushed him from second to fifth in points.

On the other hand, Paul Menard qualified ninth and finished fourth for his third top-five finish in 2011, the most in his career.

And in 13 starts this season, Landon Cassill hadn’t finished higher than 24th until he came home 12th at Michigan driving for Phoenix Racing.

 

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