Triangular Reasoning – Fantasy Insight Pocono 2

Last week we heard analysts saying, “If a team was good at Pocono they will probably be good at Indy.” This was accepted as “Fact” just as we seem to always hear announcers say that “Track position is very important here.”

But what was lacking last week during the analysis was any data to back up those numbers. Why do the analysts think a driver who does great at Pocono will do great at Indy? The reason is simple – it is because the track types are similar in style even though they are very different in shape and banking in the turns. But let’s look at the hard data and see if there is anything in the numbers we can decipher.

The last six winners in the first race at Pocono were never able to repeat at Indy a few weeks later. The best finish was by Jeff Gordon, who finished 2^nd at Indy the same year he won at Pocono.

Likewise, the Indy winner over the past five years has never repeated the next week at Pocono. But the first Pocono race winners had never finished worse than 15^th at Indy until this year when Joey Logano crashed and finished 33^rd at Indy. Only once has the Indy winner finished worse than 13^th at Pocono the next week. So the numbers suggest that while picking a repeat winner goes against the data expecting the Indy winner to have a consistent race this week is backed up by the data.

Good luck with your fantasy racing picks this week and don’t forget to send in your pick for “Whiteboard Fantasy Racing” this week for Pocono.

Send in your pick to win this week’s Cup race to dennis@racetalkradio.com for a chance to win a copy of the National Speedway Directory from SpeedwaysOnline.com.

Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Winner Last Week

Mike N picked Jimmie Johnson

Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Top Ten After Indy

Rank	Player	Total
1	RA	38
2	Gertie	36
3	LAM	34
4	Carbon	32
5	Grainger	31
6	Rick	29
7	Mike N	26
8	Chris U	24
9T	Aaron C	23
9T	Jim R	23
11	DMIC	22
12	Shari P	16

Weather Report

Partly sunny with a high temp of 85F

If you have a question about Fantasy Racing send it to dennis@racetalkradio.com and get it answered next week. 

 

NASCAR by the Numbers- Lubricated by TheOilMedics.com

Using a proprietary race analysis technique we take the fans inside the numbers every week. DMIC’s rating system has been in use since 2002 and has proven to pick the contenders from the pretenders!

Consistency is King (Last Five Races)

Driver	Last 5
J Gordon	93
B Keselowski	93
K Kahne	93
J Johnson	90
D Earnhardt Jr	90
T Stewart	89
G Biffle	88
C Bowyer	87
J Logano	87
D Hamlin	87

 

Horses for Courses (Track Rating)

Driver	Course
J Johnson	95
T Stewart	92
K Harvick	92
D Hamlin	91
Ku Busch	90
R Newman	90
Ky Busch	88
J Gordon	88
P Menard	88
C Edwards	87

 

Type Casting (Track Type Factor)

Driver	Type
J Johnson	96
T Stewart	95
D Earnhardt Jr	94
R Newman	91
C Bowyer	90
G Biffle	89
M Martin	88
B Keselowski	88
J Gordon	88
K Harvick	87

 

Power Rating (240 Minimum to Qualify as Contender)

Driver	Power
J Johnson	280
T Stewart	276
D Earnhardt Jr	270
J Gordon	268
R Newman	266
K Harvick	265
C Bowyer	265
B Keselowski	264
D Hamlin	261
Ky Busch	261
M Kenseth	260
G Biffle	259
M Truex	258
M Martin	257
P Menard	254
C Edwards	251
K Kahne	251
J Logano	251
J Burton	248
Ku Busch	247
JP Montoya	243
S Hornish	243
J McMurray	240
M Ambrose	239
R Smith	236
B Labonte	230
A Almirola	227
D Ragan	225
T Kvapil	223
C Mears	223
D Blaney	218
D Gilliland	218
L Cassill	217

 

DMIC’s Fantasy Picks

Each week we will take you beyond the numbers to handicap the field from top to bottom to help your Fantasy Racing team succeed. You are also invited to join Lori Munro and I on “White Board Fantasy Racing” every Monday night on “Doin’ Donuts” at 8pm ET on RaceTalkRadio.com. Win fun prizes by picking just the race winners in our unique format. Send your picks to info@racetalkradio.com to enter. 

Top Pick (Last Week Winner)

Jimmie Johnson- Could get on a roll and kick some serious butt the rest of the way

(6 to 1 Odds) 

Best Long Shot (Odds of 20-1 or More) (Last Week 11^th)         

Ryan Newman- Should be in the hunt after solid race at Indy

(25 to 1 Odds)

Top Dogs (Group A in Yahoo) (Last Week 10^th)          

Denny Hamlin- 100 less miles to worry about the engine

(6 to 1 odds)

Second Class (Group B in Yahoo) (Last Week 4^th)        

Dale Earnhardt Jr- Only driver to complete every lap in 2012

(10 to 1 Odds)

Middle Packer (Group C in Yahoo) (Last Week 17^th)         

Sam Hornish Jr- Should be top 20 here

Crazy 8s for Pocono

Each week Lori Munro and Dennis Michelsen battle in the most unique racing game around! We pick one driver each from each 8 driver group using the current points’ standings. Our picks can help you round out your fantasy racing lineup.

Last Race at Indy: Lori won the matchup 3-2

Season Record: Lori leads Dennis at 13-7

Group 1: Lori picks Jimmie Johnson and Dennis picks Dale Earnhardt Jr

Group 2: Dennis picks Brad Keselowski and Lori picks Jeff Gordon

Group 3: Lori picks Joey Logano and Dennis picks Marcos Ambrose

Group 4: Dennis picks Mark Martin and Lori picks Kurt Busch

Group 5: Lori picks Sam Hornish Jr and Dennis picks David Reutimann

Do you have what it takes to handicap the races? Join Lori and Dennis every week and play in the Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Series! Send your pick for the Cup race to info@racetalkradio.com to enter. Weekly prize given away!