Carl Edwards
New tracks on the schedule are difficult to forecast by the numbers due to the lack of – numbers. Last year at this time I wasn’t even 100% positive which “Track Type” category should include Kentucky Speedway. No two “Cookie Cutter” tracks are identical but usually there are similar enough characteristics to be fairly certain about the decision.
It has more to do with how the track races rather than the blue prints and degree of banking. Banking in the corners at Kentucky is 14 degrees versus 15 at Kansas and 18 at Chicagoland. That compares to 24 degrees at Atlanta and 20 at Las Vegas.
The educated guess was that Kentucky would race similar to Kansas and Chicago therefore it was added to that “Track Type” group. Last year some special tweaking of the “Horses for Courses” formula was needed to estimate driver performance at Kentucky. Race winner Kyle Busch had a solid 261 power rating and Matt Kenseth, who had the top rating last year, had a strong race. Based on that data the assumption of track type has remained for this season.
Engine issues at Joe Gibbs Racing have me concerned and that is why I will avoid JGR teams on my fantasy lineup until I see proof they have solved their issues. As I mentioned a few weeks ago fantasy race fans can assure solid performances each week by loading up on drivers with Roush-Yates or Hendrick power under their hoods.
This week at Kentucky Speedway I also think Brad Keselowski is a good bet and the Vegas line of 20-1 makes him an attractive longshot. Lame duck driver Matt Kenseth will have a solid race but this week I am betting on another driver to get his first win of the season…that driver is Carl Edwards.
Good luck with your fantasy racing picks this week and don’t forget to send in your pick for “Whiteboard Fantasy Racing” this week for the big race at Kentucky.
Send in your pick to win this week’s Cup race to dennis@racetalkradio.com for a chance to win a copy of the National Speedway Directory from SpeedwaysOnline.com.
Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Winner Last Week
Dirt Track Racing won at Sonoma
Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Top Ten After 16 Weeks
|
Rank |
Player |
Points |
|
1 |
RA |
34 |
|
2T |
Carbon |
30 |
|
2T |
Gertie |
30 |
|
4 |
LAM |
29 |
|
5 |
Grainger |
25 |
|
6 |
Rick |
22 |
|
7 |
DMIC |
20 |
|
8 |
Chris U |
19 |
|
9T |
Aaron C |
16 |
|
9T |
Mike N |
16 |
Brad Keselowski
Weather Report
Hot and humid with a threat of thunderstorms. High temp 99F with green flag temp of 89F
If you have a question about Fantasy Racing send it to dennis@racetalkradio.com and get it answered next week.
NASCAR by the Numbers- Lubricated by TheOilMedics.com
Using a proprietary race analysis technique we take the fans inside the numbers every week. DMIC’s rating system has been in use since 2002 and has proven to pick the contenders from the pretenders!
Consistency is King (Last Five Races)
|
Driver |
Last 5 |
|
J Johnson |
95 |
|
C Bowyer |
94 |
|
M Kenseth |
93 |
|
D Earnhardt Jr |
92 |
|
G Biffle |
90 |
|
K Harvick |
90 |
|
J Gordon |
90 |
|
T Stewart |
89 |
|
B Keselowski |
88 |
|
M Ambrose |
86 |
Horses for Courses (Track Rating)
|
Driver |
Course |
|
J Logano |
96 |
|
M Kenseth |
94 |
|
D Ragan |
93 |
|
B Keselowski |
93 |
|
K Harvick |
91 |
|
Ky Busch |
91 |
|
G Biffle |
90 |
|
J Johnson |
90 |
|
D Hamlin |
89 |
|
M Ambrose |
88 |
Type Casting (Track Type Factor)
|
Driver |
Type |
|
J Johnson |
95 |
|
B Keselowski |
95 |
|
C Edwards |
94 |
|
M Kenseth |
92 |
|
K Harvick |
92 |
|
T Stewart |
90 |
|
K Kahne |
90 |
|
Ku Busch |
89 |
|
Ky Busch |
89 |
|
D Earnhardt Jr |
89 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr
Power Rating (240 Minimum to Qualify as Contender)
|
Driver |
Power |
|
J Johnson |
280 |
|
M Kenseth |
279 |
|
B Keselowski |
275 |
|
K Harvick |
273 |
|
G Biffle |
266 |
|
T Stewart |
264 |
|
C Edwards |
263 |
|
C Bowyer |
262 |
|
J Logano |
262 |
|
D Earnhardt Jr |
260 |
|
D Hamlin |
260 |
|
Ky Busch |
258 |
|
K Kahne |
257 |
|
M Ambrose |
256 |
|
R Newman |
253 |
|
Ku Busch |
251 |
|
D Ragan |
251 |
|
J Gordon |
251 |
|
P Menard |
248 |
|
JP Montoya |
247 |
|
M Truex |
244 |
|
J Burton |
242 |
|
A Almirola |
241 |
|
J McMurray |
239 |
|
R Smith |
237 |
|
AJ Allmendinger |
234 |
|
L Cassill |
224 |
|
B Labonte |
224 |
|
M Waltrip |
223 |
|
C Mears |
223 |
|
D Gilliland |
220 |
|
T Kvapil |
217 |
|
D Blaney |
213 |
DMIC’s Fantasy Picks
Each week we will take you beyond the numbers to handicap the field from top to bottom to help your Fantasy Racing team succeed. You are also invited to join Lori Munro and I on “White Board Fantasy Racing” every Monday night on “Doin’ Donuts” at 8pm ET on RaceTalkRadio.com. Win fun prizes by picking just the race winners in our unique format. Send your picks to info@racetalkradio.com to enter.
Top Pick (Last Week 6th)
Carl Edwards- Will go into stands and validate everyone’s parking to celebrate win
(10 to 1 Odds)
Best Long Shot (Odds of 20-1 or More) (Last Week 39th)
Brad Keselowski- Strong Type Cast rating
(20 to 1 Odds)
Top Dogs (Group A in Yahoo) (Last Week 5th)
Jimmie Johnson- Team adapts well to rule changes
(7 to 1 Odds)
Second Class (Group B in Yahoo) (Last Week 8th)
Dale Earnhardt Jr- Super consistent at speedways this year
(14 to 1 Odds)
Middle Packer (Group C in Yahoo) (Last Week DNQ)
Aric Almirola- Should have a solid 15th-20th place finish
Crazy 8s for Kentucky
Each week Lori Munro and Dennis Michelsen battle in the most unique racing game around! We pick one driver each from each 8 driver group using the current points’ standings. Our picks can help you round out your fantasy racing lineup!
Last Race at Sonoma: Dennis won the matchup 3-2
Season Record: Lori leads Dennis at 9-7
Group 1: Dennis picks Jimmie Johnson and Lori picks Tony Stewart
Group 2: Lori picks Kyle Busch and Dennis picks Carl Edwards
Group 3: Dennis picks Kasey Kahne and Lori picks Jeff Gordon
Group 4: Lori picks Kurt Busch and Dennis picks Bobby Labonte
Group 5: Dennis picks Michael Waltrip and Lori picks David Reutimann
Do you have what it takes to handicap the races? Join Lori and Dennis every week and play in the Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Series! Send your pick for the Cup race to info@racetalkradio.com
