Jimmie Johnson
If you have been paying attention at home you know that while the RaceTalkRadio Power Ratings show you who is likely to be a contender you can’t just pick the high point guy as your most likely winner each week.
Any statistical method of handicapping has to be used properly to reward the handicapper with lots of winners. If you were only looking for consistency then taking the top points guy would work every week. But since I like to show off with winners it takes much more than simple math, it takes looking past the data to gain the edge. This week we have a rare triple threat set up.
It is extremely rare when the top rated driver in each of our three categories is the same. Over the past five seasons it has only happened on seven occasions, which represents only 3.9% of the total number of races. During those seven occasions that the same driver tops all three ratings in the same week that driver has won on five occasions. That is an amazing 71% of the time, which is an amazing correlation in statistical analysis. This week I am a little less certain of the result since Jimmie Johnson is less than a full point ahead in two of the three categories…but I still won’t bet against five-time this week when he is a triple rating threat.
Good luck with your fantasy racing picks this week and don’t forget to send in your pick for “Whiteboard Fantasy Racing” this week for Kansas.
Send in your pick to win this week’s Cup race to dennis@racetalkradio.com for a chance to win a copy of the National Speedway Directory from SpeedwaysOnline.com.
Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Winner Last Week
Carbon Super Sport had the winning pick last week
Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Top Ten After 7 Weeks
|
Rank |
Player |
Total |
|
1 |
Carbon |
17 |
|
2 |
LAM |
13 |
|
3 |
Shari P |
12 |
|
4T |
Gertie |
11 |
|
4T |
Chris U |
11 |
|
6T |
RA |
10 |
|
6T |
Aaron C |
10 |
|
8 |
Grainger |
9 |
|
9T |
Mike N |
8 |
|
9T |
Pops |
8 |
Weather Report
Mostly sunny and pleasant with green flag temp of 62F and high temp of 71F
Fantasy Racing Question of the Week: Phil in Kentucky – Does a driver learn enough from a good Nationwide race to pick him to win in Cup?
Clint Bowyer
Answer – The tapered spacer on the engines of the Nationwide and Truck series makes comparisons between the driving styles of the support divisions and Cup series tougher. But the same tires are used and drivers say that does sometimes help them learn about how a track changes as the rubber builds up and how their car handles as their tires wear out. Sometimes just giving the driver added confidence with a strong performance helps too so this can be factored into your race handicapping.
If you have a question about Fantasy Racing send it to dennis@racetalkradio.com and get it answered next week.
NASCAR by the Numbers- Lubricated by TheOilMedics.com
Using a proprietary race analysis technique we take the fans inside the numbers every week. DMIC’s rating system has been in use since 2002 and has proven to pick the contenders from the pretenders!
Consistency is King (Last Five Races)
|
J Johnson |
93 |
|
G Biffle |
93 |
|
M Truex |
92 |
|
D Earnhardt Jr |
92 |
|
R Newman |
91 |
|
T Stewart |
91 |
|
M Kenseth |
90 |
|
C Bowyer |
90 |
|
M Martin |
90 |
|
K Harvick |
89 |
Horses for Courses (Track Rating)
|
J Johnson |
96 |
|
G Biffle |
95 |
|
C Edwards |
94 |
|
J Gordon |
91 |
|
D Hamlin |
91 |
|
B Keselowski |
90 |
|
K Harvick |
90 |
|
M Kenseth |
90 |
|
T Stewart |
86 |
|
M Martin |
86 |
Type Casting (Track Type Factor)
|
J Johnson |
95 |
|
C Edwards |
95 |
|
K Harvick |
92 |
|
B Keselowski |
92 |
|
T Stewart |
92 |
|
M Kenseth |
91 |
|
Ku Busch |
90 |
|
R Newman |
89 |
|
G Biffle |
87 |
|
Ky Busch |
87 |
Power Rating (240 Minimum to Qualify as Contender)
|
J Johnson |
284 |
|
C Edwards |
278 |
|
G Biffle |
275 |
|
K Harvick |
272 |
|
M Kenseth |
271 |
|
T Stewart |
269 |
|
B Keselowski |
265 |
|
R Newman |
264 |
|
D Hamlin |
262 |
|
D Earnhardt Jr |
261 |
|
M Martin |
260 |
|
C Bowyer |
260 |
|
J Gordon |
259 |
|
Ku Busch |
255 |
|
K Kahne |
251 |
|
Ky Busch |
251 |
|
P Menard |
248 |
|
M Truex |
248 |
|
JP Montoya |
244 |
|
D Ragan |
243 |
|
AJ Allmendinger |
243 |
|
J Burton |
243 |
|
A Almirola |
241 |
|
J McMurray |
238 |
|
M Ambrose |
238 |
|
J Logano |
235 |
|
R Smith |
233 |
|
D Reutimann |
229 |
|
C Mears |
225 |
|
B Labonte |
218 |
|
L Cassill |
217 |
|
T Kvapil |
215 |
|
D Gilliland |
213 |
|
D Blaney |
210 |
Mark Martin
DMIC’s Fantasy Picks
Each week we will take you beyond the numbers to handicap the field from top to bottom to help your Fantasy Racing team succeed. You are also invited to join Lori Munro and I on “White Board Fantasy Racing” every Monday night on “Doin’ Donuts” at 8pm ET on RaceTalkRadio.com. Win fun prizes by picking just the race winners in our unique format. Send your picks to info@racetalkradio.com to enter.
Top Pick (Last Week 10th)
Jimmie Johnson- Not getting fancy this week…taking the best driver at Kansas
(5 to 1 Odds)
Best Long Shot (Odds of 20-1 or More) (Last Week 17th)
Clint Bowyer- Home track hero has a good chance with MWR running strong
(22 to 1 Odds)
Top Dogs (Group A in Yahoo) (Last Week 5th)
Carl Edwards- Another good track for Edwards and Roush Racing
(8 to 1 Odds)
Second Class (Group B in Yahoo) (Last Week Winner)
Mark Martin- The KID is as good as he ever was
(18 to 1 Odds)
Middle Packer (Group C in Yahoo) (Last Week 27th)
Bobby Labonte- Anything better than 20th is a bonus with this group.
Crazy 8s for Kansas
Each week Lori Munro and Dennis Michelsen battle in the most unique racing game around! We pick one driver each from each 8 driver group using the current points’ standings. Our picks can help you round out your fantasy racing lineup!
Last Race at Texas: Lori won the matchup 3-2
Season Record: Lori leads Dennis at 4-3
Kansas Group 1: Lori picks Jimmie Johnson and Dennis picks Greg Biffle
Kansas Group 2: Dennis picks Carl Edwards and Lori picks Brad Keselowski
Kansas Group 3: Lori picks Mark Martin and Dennis picks Jeff Gordon
Kansas Group 4: Dennis picks Kasey Kahne and Lori picks Kurt Busch
Kansas Group 5: Lori Picks Sam Hornish Jr and Dennis picks Landon Cassill
Do you have what it takes to handicap the races? Join Lori and Dennis every week and play in the Whiteboard Fantasy Racing Series! Send your pick for the Cup race to info@racetalkradio.com to enter. Weekly prize given away!
